Is the Weak Jobs Report Foretelling a Recession?

In case you hadn't heard on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Report for the month of May was disappointing.  Economists who follow job growth in the U.S. economy were expecting 123,000 new jobs to be created.  The actual number, according to the BLS, was 38,000—the smallest gain since September of 2010.

What’s going on?  On a scale of 1 to Lehman, how worried should we be?  Is an 85,000 shortfall in job growth, in a single month, telling us that the U.S. economy is about to plunge into a deep recession? The short answer is no.

As it turns out, the investment markets largely shrugged off the surprising number—for a variety of reasons.  First of all, a strike affecting 35,000 Verizon employees was somehow factored into the data, so unless all the striking workers are never coming back to work, a real count would have put the job-adding number at around 73,000.  Second, the employment data comes with a huge asterisk: these are estimates with a margin of error of 100,000 jobs.  That means we won’t actually know how many jobs were created until sometime in the future. There are at least two revisions to be made in the future.

Third: despite the low job creation figure, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also told us that the unemployment rate is dropping, currently to 4.7%, the lowest rate since November 2007.  How can that be?  BLS statistics say that people are leaving the workforce at a faster rate than previously, but the economy has also been adding 180,000 to 200,000 jobs almost every month for the past five years.  Is it possible that it has finally given a job to most of the people who want one?

As evidence, the BLS has reported that hourly earnings by workers are up 3.2% for the first five months of 2016, which suggests that workers have a bit more pricing power than they did, say, last year.  That suggests that we are experiencing a tighter labor market, not one where jobs are falling off the table and many people are too discouraged to apply for a job.

Finally, the uncertainty over jobs has almost certainly delayed the rise in interest rates that had, before the report, been widely expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board in June or July.  You can expect the Fed to be more cautious about adding any costs to the economy until its economists can get a handle on what that odd job statistic means for the overall health of U.S. businesses.  That would give the economy a slight boost, and might lead to higher jobs growth figures in the future.

So how much did Friday’s employment news change the fundamental picture of economic growth or the prospects for stocks?

Not very much.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sources:

http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/06/03/wall-street-stunned/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-on-may-2016-jobs-report-2016-6

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-may-2016-2016-6

http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2016/06/03/jobs-report-u-s-adds-just-38000-jobs-in-may-unemployment-rate-down-to-4-7/?linkId=25155735#22a015b216da

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/03/what-just-happened-with-jobs-in-america/?tid=sm_tw

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/03/us-markets-shake-off-grim-jobs-report/

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post

Will Britain Bid the European Union Cheeri-EU?

While we celebrate the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, the big question on European minds is how the British people will vote on June 23.  Will they vote to leave the European Union (what’s being called the “Brexit”) or decide to continue to be part of the 28-nation economic alliance?

What’s at stake?  It’s hard to know, exactly.  Great Britain already maintains its own currency, separate from the euro, so the vote will be about whether the country continues to pay into the EU budget and adhere to the eurozone’s regulations.  Norway is also living outside the EU, yet it contributes to the budget, adheres to the regulations and seems to get most of the benefits of membership—and thereby offers a way for Britain to exit and still maintain all the trappings of membership.  The uncertainty over the seven years that would be required to transition out of membership would be over how, exactly, a new relationship would be structured.

The eurozone is suffering from high unemployment, low economic growth and a disparity between the richer (UK, Germany, Scandinavia) and poorer (Greece, Spain) nations.  All European Union members are governed by policies created by the European Commission and the European parliament, and subject to the dispute resolution powers of the European Court of Justice.  British voters might decide they don’t like the shared sovereignty and ties to the economic problems.

Naturally, there is a lot of lobbying on both sides in the run-up to the vote.  Economists seem to be uniformly against a Brexit, pointing out the obvious: that it would be hard for London to continue its role as the financial capital of Europe if its nation is not actually a part of the European Union.  They point out that, unlike Greece, Britain already controls its own currency, and it is not a part of the passport-free zone, which is shorthand for having control over its own policies in regard to the Middle Eastern refugee crisis.

Those in favor of Brexit say that Britain would be freer to enter into trade deals with other countries (think: China) than it is today, and of course there is a lot of nationalist sentiment about reducing foreign influence over British affairs.

Who will win?  The most recent polls show 46% of British voters will cast a ballot to leave the EU, vs. 44% who will vote to remain—and 10% who say they don’t know how they’ll vote.  A little less than a month from the actual Brexit election, there appears to be plenty of time for either side to continue pressing their case.

Ultimately, hand-wringing over the vote during the month of June will likely contribute to stock market volatility until the vote is settled. My personal opinion is that British Citizens will vote to remain in the Union. Europeans, including the British, fought hard for decades to unite; they likely won't give up on that union that easily.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch.

Enjoy your Memorial Day Holiday. We are grateful to the soldiers and families who paid the ultimate price for our freedom.

Sources:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/70d0bfd8-d1b3-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377.html#axzz40tXOLR6p

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/e7b2d4d4-daea-11e5-98fd-06d75973fe09.html#axzz48O9tGx46

http://www.economist.com/node/21697253

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/668624/EU-referendum-ICM-poll-UK-on-course-for-Brexit-Europe-Day

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post

Work Longer, Live Longer

There’s finally an answer to an age-old question: How can you live a longer, more satisfying life?

The answer: work past the traditional retirement age of 65.

A new study published in the Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health looked at the risk of dying for different age groups of Americans, and compared it to their retirement age.  The researchers found that the likelihood of dying in any given year was 11% lower among people who delayed retirement for just one single year—from age 65 to age 66.  By age 70, people who continued working experienced a 38% lower risk of dying than people of the same age who had retired at age 65.  By age 72, the risk was 44% lower.  These results seemed not to be affected by other variables, like gender, lifestyle, education, income and even occupation.



Why is working longer good for your health?  The article suggested that when you continue working, even part-time, your normal age-related decline in physical and mental functioning happens more slowly.  You’re having to stay engaged in the complicated work-world, which keeps you sharp—and, apparently, alive.

Sources:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/retiring-after-65-may-help-people-live-longer-1462202016

The MoneyGeek thanks Bob Veres for his contribution to this article

Last Call for Social Security Benefits File-And-Suspend – April 29 2016

Last fall, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 changed the rules to eliminate two popular Social Security claiming strategies for married couples: File-and-Suspend, and Restricted Application.

Who should be considering this?

Anyone who has at least met the full retirement age of 66, and is not yet age 70, should be considering whether to submit a file-and-suspend request by April 29.  If you or someone you know is within this age range, please share this article and be aware that you/they have a very short window to meet the deadline. Anyone who wants to be “grandfathered” under the old (current, and more favorable) rules has only one week left to complete their Social Security application and suspension request by the April 29 deadline!

What is File-and-Suspend?

On the surface, it seems too good to be true.  Let’s say you have a married couple, where (let’s say) the husband has earned higher yearly income than his wife.  That means he has contributed more to Social Security over his working life.  The husband files for Social Security benefits at full retirement age (currently age 66) and then immediately files to suspend those benefits.

As a result of this simple maneuver, the wife is now entitled to immediately receive Social Security spousal benefits equal to half of the husband’s full retirement benefits that were just suspended.  She would do this if 50% of the husband’s benefit is higher than she would have received if she had simply claimed her own Social Security payments.

Because he suspended his benefits, the husband can continue working, and wait until age 70 to start receiving Social Security checks in his own name.  Why would he do that?  Because each year of deferral allows him to accumulate more credits—effectively raising his monthly benefits 8% a year, which is considerably higher than the inflation rate.  At that time, the wife would stop claiming the husband’s benefits and start receiving her own Social Security checks.  If she was working at the time, she might have raised the amount she could claim under her own name.

Presto!  More money now, more money later.

The original rationale behind the file and suspend strategy was to encourage more seniors to continue working.  The rationale behind ending it is that it was becoming a drain on the Social Security system.  Moreover, Congress was looking for money to offset a huge increase in Medicare Part B premiums for individuals not yet receiving Social Security payments.

Notably, the tactic is a moot point for anyone who has already claimed benefits, or who doesn’t plan to delay benefits going forward. Nor is file-and-suspend relevant for widows (who don’t need file-and-suspend to coordinate between retirement and survivor benefits), nor for divorcees (who rely on the Restricted Application strategy instead, which remains available after April 29 for anyone who was born in 1953 or prior).

Nonetheless, for married couples (and some parents with children) who are in the age 66-70 window and have not yet claimed their benefits, but where one person could activate a spousal or dependent child benefit for someone else while delaying their own benefit, only a small time window remains to submit a File-and-Suspend request before the rules are changed forever! And arguably, anyone who is single and doesn’t care about spousal benefits, but simply wants to preserve the right to “undo” and reinstate their delay decision in the next few years, may want to consider submitting a request to File-and-Suspend by April 29 as well!

If you or someone you know wishes to inquire or apply for this benefit, you should visit www.ssa.gov or call your local social security office.

If you would like to discuss your social security benefits situation or any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch.

Sources:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Saving-Money/2015/1102/Social-Security-This-strategy-to-maximize-benefits-may-soon-disappear

http://www.dailylocal.com/business/20151102/colliton-budget-plan-ends-social-security-file-and-suspend

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writers Michael Kitces and Bob Veres for their contributions to this post.

An Estate Plan for your Digital Assets

In recent years, a new category of assets has appeared on the scene, which can be more complicated to pass on at someone’s death than stocks, bonds and cash.  The list includes such valuable property as digital domain names, social media accounts, websites and blogs that you manage, and pretty much anything stored in the digital "cloud."  In addition, if you were to die tomorrow, would your heirs know the pass-codes to access your iPad or smartphone?  Or, for that matter, your e-mail account or the Amazon.com or iTunes shopping accounts you’ve set up?  Would they know how to shut down your Facebook account, or would it live on after your death?

A service called Everplans has created a listing of these and other digital assets that you might consider in your estate plan, and recommends that you share your logins and passwords with a digital executor or heirs.  If the account or asset has value (airline miles or hotel rewards programs, domain names) these should be transferred to specific heirs—and you can include these bequests in your will.  Other assets should probably be shut down or discontinued, which means your digital executor should probably be a detail-oriented person with some technical familiarity.

The site also provides a guide to how to shut down accounts; click on “F,” select “Facebook,” and you’re taken to a site (https://www.everplans.com/articles/how-to-close-a-facebook-account-when-someone-dies) which tells you how to deactivate or delete the account.  Note that each option requires the digital executor to be able to log into the site first; otherwise that person would have to submit your birth and death certificates and proof of authority under local law that he/she is your lawful representative.  (The executor can also “memorialize” your account, which means freezing it from outside participation.)

The point here is that even if you know who would get your house and retirement assets if you were hit by a bus tomorrow, you could still be leaving a mess to your heirs unless you clean up your digital assets as well.

Sources:

https://www.everplans.com/articles/a-helpful-overview-of-all-your-digital-property-and-digital-assets

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post