What You Must Know About the Tax Return Deadline

It’s that time of year, folks, and I wish I were talking about spring. The federal income tax filing deadline for individuals is fast approaching—generally Monday, April 15, 2024. For taxpayers living in Maine or Massachusetts, you get a couple of extra days to procrastinate—your deadline is April 17, 2024.

The IRS has also postponed the deadline for certain disaster-area taxpayers to file federal income tax returns and make tax payments. The current list of eligible localities and other details for each disaster are always available on the IRS website's Tax Relief in Disaster Situations page. Interest and penalties are suspended until the postponed deadline for affected taxpayers.

If I refer to the April 15 deadline in this article, you can assume I also mean any other postponed original deadline that applies to you.

Need More Time?

If you cannot file your federal income tax return by the April (or other) due date, you can file for an extension by the April 15 due date using IRS Form 4868, “Application for Automatic Extension of Time to File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return.” Most software packages can electronically file this form for you and, if necessary, remit a payment.

Filing this extension gives you until October 15, 2024, to file your federal income tax return. You don’t have to explain why you’re asking for the extension, and the IRS will contact you only if your extension is denied and explain the reason(s). There are no allowable extensions beyond October 15 unless extended by law, or you’re affected by a federally declared disaster area.

Assuming you owe a payment on April 15, you can file for an automatic extension electronically without filing Form 4868. Suppose you make an extension payment electronically via IRS Direct Pay or the Electronic Federal Tax Payment System (EFTPS) by April 15. In that case, no extension form has to be filed (see Pay What You Owe below for more information).

An extension of time to file your 2023 calendar year income tax return also extends the time to file Form 709, “Gift and generation-skipping transfer (GST) tax returns” for 2023.

Special rules apply if you're a U.S. citizen or resident living outside the country or serving in the military outside the country on the regular due date of your federal income tax return. If so, you’re allowed two extra months to file your return and pay any amount due without requesting an extension. Interest, currently at 8% (but not penalties), will still be charged on payments made after the regular due date without regard to the extended due date.

You can pay the tax and file your return or Form 4868 for additional filing time by June 17, 2024. If you request an extension because you were out of the country, check the box on line 8 of the form.

If you file for an extension, you can file your tax return any time before the extension expires. And there’s no need to attach a copy of Form 4868 to your filed income tax return.

Tip #1: By statute, certain federal elections must be made with a timely filed return or extension and cannot be made after the original due date has passed. For example, if you’re a trader and want to elect trader tax status for the current tax year (2024), it must be made by April 15, 2024, with your timely filed return or attached to your extension. Once April 15 has passed, you are barred from making the election until the following tax year. Some elections may be permanently barred after the regular due date, so check with your tax advisor to see if you need a timely filed election with your return or extension.

Tip #2: For proof of a timely snail-mailed extension, especially for those with a relatively large payment, be sure to mail it by certified mail, return receipt requested (always request proof of delivery regardless of the method of transportation.)

Caveat: Generally, the IRS has three years from the original due date of your return to examine it and assess additional taxes (six years if fraud is suspected). If you extend your return, the three (or six) year “clock” does not start ticking until you file it, so essentially, by extending your return, you are extending the statute of limitations. But contrary to popular belief, requesting an extension does NOT increase your odds of an examination.

Pay What You Owe

One of the biggest mistakes you can make is not filing your return because you owe money. If the bottom line on your return shows that you owe tax, file and pay the amount due in full by the due date if possible. If you cannot pay what you owe, file the return (or extension) and pay as much as you can afford. You'll owe interest and possibly penalties on the unpaid tax, but you will limit the penalties assessed by filing your return on time. You may be able to work with the IRS to pay the unpaid balance via an installment payment agreement (interest applies.)

It's important to understand that filing for an automatic extension to file your return does not provide additional time to pay your taxes. When you file for an extension, you must estimate the amount of tax you will owe; you should pay this amount (or as much as you can) by the April 15 (or other) filing due date.  If you don't, you will owe interest, and you may owe penalties as well. If the IRS believes that your estimate of taxes was not reasonable, it may void your extension, potentially causing you to owe failure to file penalties and late payment penalties as well.

There are several alternative ways to pay your taxes besides via check. You can pay online directly from your bank account using Direct Pay or EFTPS, a digital wallet such as Click to Pay, PayPal, Venmo, or cash using a debit or credit card (additional processing fees may apply). You can also pay by phone using the EFTPS or debit or credit card. For more information, go to Make a Payment.

Tax Refunds

The IRS encourages taxpayers seeking tax refunds to file their tax returns as soon as possible. The IRS anticipates most tax refunds being issued within 21 days of the IRS receiving a tax return if 1) the return is filed electronically, 2) the tax refund is delivered via direct deposit, and 3) there are no issues with the tax return. To help minimize delays in processing, the IRS encourages people to avoid paper tax returns whenever possible.

To check on your federal income tax refund status, wait five business days after electronic filing and go to the IRS page: Where’s My Refund? Your state may provide a similar page to look up state refund status.

State and Local Income Tax Returns

Most states and localities have the same April 15 deadline and will conform with postponed federal deadlines due to federally declared disasters or legal holidays. Accordingly, most states and localities will accept your federal extension automatically (to extend your state return) without filing any state extension forms, assuming you don’t owe a balance on the regular due date. Otherwise, your state or locality may have its own extension form you can use to send in with your payment. Most states also now accept electronic payments online instead of a filed extension form with payment. Never assume that a federal extension will extend your state return; some do not. Always check to be sure.

Tip: If you want to cover all your bases, if your federal extension is lost or invalidated for any reason, you may want to file a state paper or online extension to extend the return correctly. It rarely happens, but sometimes, it is better to be safe than sorry.

IRA Contributions

Contributions to an individual retirement account (IRA) for 2023 can be made up to the April 15 due date for filing the 2023 federal income tax return (this deadline cannot be extended except by statute). However, certain disaster-area taxpayers granted relief may have additional time to contribute.

If you had earned income last year, you may be able to contribute up to $6,500 for 2023 ($7,500 for those age 50 or older by December 31, 2023) up until your tax return due date, excluding extensions. For most people, that date is Monday, April 15, 2024.

You can contribute to a traditional IRA, a Roth IRA, or both. Total contributions cannot exceed the annual limit or 100% of your taxable compensation, whichever is less. You may also be able to contribute to an IRA for your spouse for 2023, even if your spouse had no earned income.

Making a last-minute contribution to an IRA may help reduce your 2023 tax bill. In addition to the potential for tax-deductible contributions to a traditional IRA, you may also be able to claim the Saver's Credit for contributions to a traditional or Roth IRA, depending on your income.

Even if your traditional IRA contribution is not deductible, and you are ineligible for a Roth IRA contribution (because of income limitations), the investment income generated by the contribution becomes tax-deferred, possibly for years, and the contribution builds cost basis in your IRA, making future distributions a little less taxing.

If you make a nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA and shortly after that convert that contribution to a Roth IRA, you can get around the income limitation of making Roth contributions. This is sometimes called a backdoor Roth IRA. Remember, however, that you'll need to aggregate all traditional IRAs and SEP/SIMPLE IRAs you own — other than IRAs you've inherited — when you calculate the taxable portion of your conversion. If your traditional IRA balance before the non-deductible contribution is zero, then you’ll owe no tax on the conversion, and voila! You have just made a legal Roth IRA contribution.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

New Retirement Planning Options Starting in 2024

The SECURE 2.0 Act, passed in December 2022, made wide-ranging changes to U.S. tax laws related to retirement savings. While some provisions were effective in 2023, others did not take effect until 2024. Here is an overview of some important changes for this year:

Matching student loan payments

Employees who make student loan repayments may receive matching employer contributions to a workplace retirement plan as if the repayments were employee contributions to the plan. This applies to 401(k), 403(b), and government 457(b) plans and SIMPLE IRAs. Employers are not required to make matching contributions in any situation, but this provision allows them to offer student loan repayment matching as an additional benefit to help address the fact that people paying off student loans may struggle to save for retirement.

New early withdrawal exceptions

Withdrawals before age 59½ from tax-deferred accounts, such as IRAs and 401(k) plans, may be subject to a 10% early distribution penalty on top of ordinary income tax. There is a long list of exceptions to this penalty, including two new ones for 2024.

Emergency expenses — one penalty-free distribution of up to $1,000 is allowed in a calendar year for personal or family emergency expenses; no further emergency distributions are allowed during a three-year period unless funds are repaid or new contributions are made that are at least equal to the withdrawal.

Domestic abuse — a penalty-free withdrawal equal to the lesser of $10,000 (indexed for inflation) or 50% of the account value is allowed for an account holder who certifies that he or she has been the victim of domestic abuse during the preceding one-year period.

Emergency savings accounts

Employers can create an emergency savings account linked to a workplace retirement plan for non-highly compensated employees.  Employee contributions are after-tax and can be no more than 3% of salary, up to an account cap of $2,500  (or lower as set by the employer). Employers can match contributions up to the cap, but any matching funds go into the employee’s workplace retirement account.

Clarification for RMD ages

SECURE 2.0 raised the initial age for required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and most workplace plans from 72 to 73 beginning in 2023 and 75 beginning in 2033. However, the language of the law was confusing. Congress has clarified that age 73 initial RMDs apply to those born from 1951 to 1959, and age 75 applies to those born in 1960 or later. This clarification will be made official in a law correcting a number of technical errors, expected to be passed in early 2024.

No more RMDs from Roth workplace accounts

Under previous law, RMDs did not apply to original owners of Roth IRAs, but they were required from designated Roth accounts in workplace retirement plans. This requirement will be eliminated beginning in 2024.

Transfers from a 529 college savings account to a Roth IRA

Beneficiaries of 529 college savings accounts are sometimes “stuck” with excess funds they did not use for qualified education expenses. Beginning in 2024, a beneficiary can execute a direct trustee-to-trustee transfer from any 529 account in the beneficiary’s name to a Roth IRA, up to a lifetime limit of $35,000. The 529 account must have been open for more than 15 years. These transfers are subject to Roth IRA annual contribution limits, requiring multiple transfers to use the $35,000 limit. The IRS is still working on specific guidance on this law change, so it might pay to wait a few months before making this type of transfer.

Increased limits for SIMPLE plans

Employers with SIMPLE IRA or SIMPLE 401(k) plans can now make additional nonelective contributions up to the lesser of $5,000 or 10% of an employee’s compensation, provided the contributions are made to each eligible employee in a uniform manner. The limits for elective deferrals and catch-up contributions, which are $16,000 and $3,500, respectively, in 2024, may be increased by an additional 10% for a plan offered by an employer with no more than 25 employees. An employer with 26 to 100 employees may allow higher limits if it provides either a 4% match or a 3% nonelective contribution.

Inflation indexing for QCDs

Qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) allow a taxpayer who is age 70½ or older to distribute up to $100,000 annually from a traditional IRA to a qualified public charity. Such a distribution is not taxable and can be used in lieu of all or part of an RMD. Beginning in 2024, the QCD amount is indexed for inflation, and the 2024 limit is $105,000.

SECURE 2.0 created an opportunity (effective 2023) to use up to $50,000 of one year’s QCD (i.e., one time only) to fund a charitable gift annuity or charitable remainder trust. This amount is also indexed to inflation beginning in 2024, and the limit is $53,000.

Catch-up contributions: indexing, delay, and correction

Beginning in 2024, the limit for catch-up contributions to an IRA for people ages 50 and older will be indexed to inflation, which could provide additional saving opportunities in future years. However, the limit did not change for 2024 and remains $1,000. (The catch-up contribution limit for 401(k)s and similar employer plans was already indexed and is $7,500 in 2024.)

The SECURE 2.0 Act includes a provision — originally effective in 2024 — requiring that catch-up contributions to workplace plans for employees earning more than $145,000 annually be made on a Roth basis. In August 2023, the IRS announced a two-year “administrative transition period” that effectively delays this provision until 2026. In the same announcement, the IRS affirmed that catch-up contributions, in general, would be allowed in 2024, despite a change related to this provision that could be interpreted to disallow such contributions. The error will be corrected in the 2024 technical legislation.

Hopefully, one or more of the above new options will help with your retirement planning. By necessity, many of the details of the changes above are abbreviated, so be sure to check with your financial or tax advisor to ensure that they’re appropriate for your tax situation, both currently and in the future.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Last Minute Year-End Tax Planning for 2023

The window of opportunity for many year-end tax-saving moves closes on December 31, so it's important to evaluate your tax situation now, while there's still time to affect your bottom line for the 2023 tax year.

Timing is Everything

Consider any opportunities you may have to defer income to 2024. Doing so may allow you to postpone paying tax on the income until next year. If there's a chance that you'll be in a lower income tax bracket next year, deferring income could mean paying less tax on the income as well.

Some examples:

·       Check with your employer to see if there is an opportunity to defer year-end bonuses.

·       Defer the sale of capital gain property (or take installment payments rather than a lump-sum payment)

·       Postpone receipt of distributions (other than required minimum distributions) from retirement accounts.

Similarly, consider ways to accelerate deductions into 2023. If you itemize deductions, you might accelerate some deductible expenses by making payments before year-end.

Some examples:

·       Consider paying medical expenses or bills in December rather than January, if doing so will allow you to qualify for the medical expense deduction (must be more than 7.5% of your income).

·       Prepay deductible interest by accelerating your January mortgage payment into December.

·       Make January alimony payments in December

·       Make next year's charitable contributions in December

·       Pay state and local taxes (income taxes, property taxes, use taxes, etc.) if you’re below the $10,000 maximum allowed itemized deduction for state and local taxes

·       Purchase that piece of equipment or vehicle needed in your business and place it in service by year-end

Sometimes, however, it may make sense to take the opposite approach — accelerating income into 2023 and postponing deductible expenses to 2024. That might be the case, for example, if you can project that you'll be in a higher tax bracket in 2024; paying taxes this year instead of next might be outweighed by the fact that the income would be taxed at a higher rate next year.

Factor in the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)

Although the number of taxpayers subject to the AMT is much lower than in prior years, make sure that you factor in the alternative minimum tax when deciding to accelerate any deductions. If you're subject to the AMT, traditional year-end maneuvers, like deferring income and accelerating deductions, can have a potentially negative effect. That's because the AMT — essentially a separate, parallel income tax with its own rates and rules — effectively disallows several itemized deductions. For example, if you're subject to the AMT in 2023, prepaying 2024 state and local taxes won't help your 2023 tax situation but could potentially hurt your 2024 bottom line.

Special Concerns for Higher-Income Individuals

The top marginal tax rate (37%) applies if your taxable income exceeds $578,125 in 2023 ($692,750 if married filing jointly, $346,875 if married filing separately, $578,100 if head of household). Your long-term capital gains and qualifying dividends could be taxed at a maximum 20% tax rate if your taxable income exceeds $492,300 in 2023 ($553,850 if married filing jointly, $276,900 if married filing separately, $523,050 if head of household).

Additionally, a 3.8% net investment income tax (unearned income Medicare contribution tax) may apply to some or all of your net investment income if your modified AGI exceeds $200,000 ($250,000 if married filing jointly, $125,000 if married filing separately).

High-income individuals are subject to an additional 0.9% Medicare (hospital insurance) payroll tax on wages exceeding $200,000 ($250,000 if married filing jointly or $125,000 if married filing separately).

Charitable Contribution Planning

If you are planning to donate to a charity, it’s likely better to make your contribution before the end of the year to potentially save on taxes. There are many tax planning strategies surrounding charitable giving:

·       Consider donating appreciated property (such as securities, real estate, or artwork) that has been held for more than one year, rather than cash. Note that an appraisal may be needed for certain properties. Not only do you get a deduction for the fair market value (FMV) of your appreciated stock, but you save on taxes by not recognizing the capital gains on the appreciation.

·       Opening and funding a donor-advised fund (DAF) is appealing to many as it allows for a fully tax-deductible gift in the current year and the ability to dole out those funds to charities over multiple years. Again, if you donate appreciated securities to a DAF, not only do you get a deduction for the FMV of your appreciated stock, but you save on taxes by not recognizing the capital gains on appreciation.

·       Qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) up to $100,000 are another option for certain older taxpayers (age 70-1/2 or older) who don’t typically itemize on their tax returns. If you don’t have a required minimum distribution (RMD) from your retirement accounts (see below), this will help reduce future RMDs and taxable income. If you do have an RMD requirement from your retirement accounts, this could be an even better strategy for you to reduce your current taxable income.

Note that it’s important to have adequate documentation of all claimed donations, including a letter from the charity for donations of $250 or more.

Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

Unfortunately, you cannot keep retirement funds in your account indefinitely. RMDs are the minimum amount you must annually withdraw from your retirement accounts once you reach a certain age (generally now age 73). Failure to do so can result in significant penalties (special rules apply if you're still working and participating in your employer's retirement plan). You must make the withdrawals by the date required — the end of the year for most individuals.

As described above, there are also opportunities to distribute retirement funds to a qualified charity to satisfy the RMD without incurring taxes. Missed RMDs are subject to steep excise tax penalties (25%), although recent rules greatly reduce the penalty (to 10%) if the missed RMD is taken within two years.

Digital Assets and Virtual Currency

Digital assets are defined under the U.S. income tax rules as any digital representation of value that may function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value. Digital assets may include virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ether, Stablecoins such as Tether and USD Coin (USDC), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The sale or exchange of virtual currencies, the use of such currencies to pay for goods or services, or holding such currencies as an investment, generally have tax impacts –– and the IRS continues to increase its scrutiny in this area. The trading and use of digital assets must be disclosed on your tax returns and, since they are considered property rather than investments, different tax rules apply to their sales and exchanges.

Energy tax credits

From electric vehicles to home car chargers to solar panels, “going green” continues to provide tax incentives. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included new and newly expanded tax credits for solar panels, electric vehicles (EV), and energy-efficient home improvements. The rules are complex but there is still time for these credits to be beneficial in the current and next year. The most notable change to the EV credits is the requirement that the vehicle has final assembly in North America. If you are planning an EV purchase, please ask the dealer whether the vehicle you’re eyeing is on the list of qualifying vehicles, which has changed significantly in the past years. See if they can advance the credit to you as an offset to the vehicle purchase price (you’ll have to sign a form to assign the credit to the dealer.)

Bump Up Withholding to Avoid 2024 Underpayment

If it looks as though you will owe federal income tax for the year, consider increasing your withholding on Form W-4 for 2024 with your employer (also consider doing the same on the appropriate state withholding forms). The biggest advantage in doing so is that withholding is considered as having been paid evenly throughout the year instead of when the dollars are taken from your paycheck. This strategy can be used instead of making quarterly estimated tax payments.

If you’re collecting social security, a pension, or taxable IRA distributions, update your Form W-4P with the appropriate payor to ensure you’ve paid in enough to avoid underpayment penalties.

Beneficial Ownership Interest (BOI) Reporting

The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) requires the disclosure of the beneficial ownership information of certain entities to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) starting in 2024. This is not a tax filing requirement, but an online report to be completed if applicable to FinCEN. There are severe penalties for businesses who willingly do not comply with the requirements. The details of this reporting requirement are still being written, so it’s best to get in touch with your business attorney to determine whether your corporation, partnership, or LLC must file this report.

Additional Tax and Financial Planning Considerations

We recommend you review your retirement plans at least annually. That includes making the most of tax-advantaged retirement saving options, such as traditional individual retirement accounts (IRAs), Roth IRAs, and company retirement plans. It’s also advisable to take advantage of health savings accounts (HSAs) that can help you reduce your taxes and save for medical-related expenses. Once you become eligible or sign up for Medicare, you are no longer entitled to make HSA contributions.

IRAs and Retirement Plans

Make sure you’re taking full advantage of tax-advantaged retirement savings vehicles. Traditional IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans such as 401(k) plans allow you to contribute funds on a deductible (if you qualify) or pre-tax basis, reducing your 2023 taxable income. Contributions to a Roth IRA (assuming you meet the income requirements) or a Roth 401(k) aren't deductible since they are made with post-tax dollars, so there's no tax benefit for 2023, but qualified Roth distributions are completely free from federal income tax, which can make these retirement savings vehicles appealing.

For 2023, you can contribute up to $22,500 to a 401(k) plan ($30,000 if you're age 50 or older) and up to $6,500 to a traditional IRA or Roth IRA ($7,500 if you're age 50 or older). The window to make 2023 contributions to an employer plan typically closes at the end of the year, while you generally have until the April tax return filing deadline (April 15, 2024) to make 2023 IRA contributions.

If you started a small business in 2023, talk to your financial or tax advisor about setting up a small business retirement plan before year-end. Most plans must be set up before year-end, but contributions may not be required every year, and they don’t have to be made until the due date of the return (plus extensions). Some small business retirement plans can be set up at tax return time (e.g., SEP-IRA), but they have less contribution flexibility and more stringent rules than other plans (e.g., a solo 401(k)).

Roth IRA Conversions

Year-end is a good time to evaluate whether it makes sense to convert a tax-deferred savings vehicle like a traditional IRA or a 401(k) account to a Roth account. When you convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, or a traditional 401(k) account to a Roth 401(k) account, the converted funds are generally subject to federal income tax in the year that you make the conversion (except to the extent that the funds represent nondeductible after-tax contributions).

If a Roth conversion does make sense, you'll want to give some thought to the timing of the conversion. For example, if you believe that you'll be in a better tax situation this year than next (e.g., you will pay tax on the converted funds at a lower rate this year), you might think about acting now rather than waiting. Whether a Roth conversion is appropriate for you depends on many factors, including your current and projected future income tax rates and whether you have the funds to pay the taxes outside of the IRA. Ask your financial or tax advisor whether a Roth Conversion is appropriate for this year or next.

Other Ideas

·       Life changes –– Any major changes in your life such as marriages or divorces, births or deaths in the family, job or employment changes, starting a business, and significant expenditures (real estate purchases, college tuition payments, etc.) can significantly impact the taxes you owe, so be sure to discuss them with your tax or financial advisor.

·       Capital gains/losses –– Consider tax benefits related to using capital losses to offset realized gains –– and move any gains to the lowest tax brackets, if possible. Also, consider selling portfolio investments that are underperforming before the end of the year. Net capital losses can offset up to $3,000 of the current year’s ordinary income. The unused excess net capital loss can be carried forward to use in subsequent years.

·       Estate and gift tax planning –– Make sure you’re appropriately planning for estate and gift tax purposes. There is an annual exclusion for gifts ($17,000 per donee in 2023, $34,000 for married couples) to help save on potential future estate taxes. If your estate/trust is worth over $5 million, it’s imperative to discuss your options with a dedicated estate planning attorney to review lifetime gift and generation-skipping transfer (GST) opportunities to use and plan additional exclusions and exemption amounts.

·       State and local taxes –– Remote working arrangements or moving your residency could potentially have state and local tax implications to consider. Be sure to discuss your working arrangements with your tax advisor.

·       Education planning –– Save for education with Section 529 education savings plans. There can be state income tax benefits to do so, and there have been changes in the way these funds can be used for private K-12 school expenses, paying down some student loans, or contributing leftover funds to Roth IRAs.

·       Updates to financial records –– Determine whether any updates are needed to your insurance policies or beneficiary designations. This should be checked at least once a year, and year-end is a good time to do so.

·       Estimated tax payments –– With underpayment interest rates being on the rise (currently at 8% for federal), you must review withholding and estimated tax payments and assess any requirements for any additional payments. The 4^th quarter 2023 estimated income tax payment is due by January 16, 2024.

Hopefully one or more of the above tips helps you save a few dollars on your tax bill. By necessity, many of the tips are abbreviated, so be sure to check with your financial or tax advisor to ensure that they’re appropriate for your tax situation, both currently and in the future.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

What’s Going on in the Markets November 29, 2023

Who ya’ gonna believe? The headlines or the market?

The latest economic headlines read:

“Credit Card Defaults are on the rise”
“Household savings rates are at historic lows”
“Banking Credit Contracts to Levels Not Seen Since the Global Financial Crisis”
“Home Builder Confidence from the National Association of Homebuilders takes another sharp drop”
“Trucking Employment is Contracting at a rate not seen since the 2000 and 2008 Crises.”
“The Conference Board of Leading Economic Indicators Declined for the 19th consecutive month”
“Yield Curves are Steepening after being extensively inverted, a sign of recession”
“Overdue commercial property loans hit 10-year high at US banks”
“No End in Sight for the Ukraine-Russia War”
“Could The War in the Middle East be the start of World War 3?”
“World Panics as supply of Twinkies Shrinks” (OK I made that one up to see if you’re paying attention)

With headlines like these, you’d think the stock markets were crashing, and we’re already in a deep recession.

Instead, the markets are having one of their best Novembers in history (after an awful October), which has led to headlines like these:

“The stock market is following a rare pattern that could signal double-digit gains next year”
“Extreme investor bearishness suggests stock market gains of 16% are coming in the next 12 months”
“The S&P 500 could soar more than 20% in the next year after an ultra-rare buy signal just flashed”
“This stock market signal points to the S&P 500 surging 25% within the next year”
“The Dow just flashed a bullish 'golden cross' Two days after the bearish 'death cross' signal”

High inflation and interest rates, two prominent wars, and unprecedented dichotomies continue to mount throughout the market and the economy, which can only mean that Wall Street’s roller-coaster ride is far from over. Let’s take a closer look at some of the headlines driving the markets.

Leading Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) has warned of trouble all year. It has declined for 19 consecutive months, its third-longest streak on record. When viewed as a ratio with the Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI), declines from peaks have typically led to recessions. When decreasing, this ratio provides evidence that coincident indicators are holding up, but leading indicators are deteriorating. The Leading-to-Coincident Ratio has steeply declined since its peak in December 2021. Never has this ratio fallen this far and at such a rapid rate without a corresponding recession.

Treasury Yields

Another warning sign still flashing red and has a near-perfect track record for predicting recessions is the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasurys.

Typically, one would expect to receive a higher interest rate on longer-duration bonds, CDs, debt, etc. After all, the more time a debt is outstanding, the more risk the lender takes (e.g., default risk, interest rate risk, bankruptcy, death, etc.). 10-year Treasurys should normally pay a higher interest rate than 2-year Treasurys to compensate lenders (the public) for this added risk.

An inversion means shorter-duration Treasurys command a higher interest rate than longer-duration Treasurys. Historically, inversions are unusual and indicate the economy is vulnerable. After all, if you’re concerned about the economy, it means you’re concerned about corporations being able to pay back their debt. Hence, you’re more likely to buy shorter-term debt. That pushes shorter-term interest rates into inversion. Simply put, if you had concerns about your brother-in-law paying back a personal loan, you’re more likely to keep the term shorter rather than longer, right?

The most recent inversion of the 10-year treasury bill and the 2-year treasury bill interest rates began in July of 2022 and quickly became its deepest (widest) since the early 1980s. The initial inversion is an early warning sign of a potential oncoming recession, but when this yield spread moves back above 0.0 (or it un-inverts), historically, there are four months on average before the onset of a recession. So, this is another definite recession warning sign.

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Economic Indicators

A few macroeconomic indicators bounced back from dire levels or improved earlier this year, spurring hopes of a soft landing. However, unfortunately, many of these improvements have recently reversed course.

The ISM manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. It is a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy. The PMI measures the change in production levels across the U.S. economy from month to month. The PMI report is released on the first business day of each month.

The 50 level in the PMI (both manufacturing and services) is the demarcation between economic expansion and contraction. Above 50, it’s expanding; below 50, it’s contracting.

Late last year, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index fell into contraction territory (<50.0) and has yet to move back into expansion. It has contracted for 12 consecutive months, showing some improvement mid-year before dropping once again in October.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing (or services) Index is an economic index based on surveys of more than 400 non-manufacturing (or services) firms' purchasing and supply executives. The ISM Services PMI comes out in the first week of each month and provides a detailed view of the U.S. economy from a non-manufacturing standpoint.

The ISM Services Index has been resilient this year, dropping below 50.0 just once since the pandemic. After initially improving in early 2023, it has declined for the past two months and is now at a five-month low. Because more than 70% of the economy is services-based, any contraction would not benefit the whole economy.

Housing and Real Estate

Housing, another major economic sector, accounts for 15-18% of U.S. GDP and is also on somewhat of a roller coaster ride of its own. Despite its improvement earlier this year, home sales have retracted and are at their lowest levels since 2010.

Existing home sales, which comprise most of the housing market, decreased 4.1% in October 2023 from the level in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million, the lowest rate since August 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors. October sales fell 14.6% from a year earlier.

New home sales for October came in lower than expected at 679,000, lower than September’s surprise of 759,000 but slightly higher than August’s 675,000. Despite being below expectations, these numbers are pretty robust (not surprising, given that existing homeowners with low mortgage rates are not selling).

Today’s housing market is still one of the most unaffordable in U.S. history. Home prices have exceeded the extremes of the 2005 housing bubble peak. With today’s high mortgage rates, high home prices, and ever-increasing ownership costs, housing activity seems to be at a standstill overall. Continued declines in home sales would hint at a bursting housing bubble.

On November 8, the Financial Times reported that overdue commercial property loans hit a 10-year high at U.S. banks. The Federal Reserve’s hiking campaign to curb inflation has caused borrowing costs of all types to surge this year, including in commercial real estate. Combined with empty building space from the pandemic work-from-home trend, commercial real estate is in a tight spot. The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index is now down nearly 20% from its 2022 peak and back to a level not seen since the short COVID-induced recession in 2020.

Inflation

While commercial property prices have fallen, price pressures elsewhere have reaccelerated in recent months, prompting consumers to expect inflation to remain elevated in the months ahead. After all, how many items at the grocery or department store have you seen come down in price (besides perhaps eggs and gasoline?)

For October, while headline and Core Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) improved slightly (inflation down), the recent acceleration in consumer inflation expectations indicates that this improvement could be temporary.

In consumer sentiment surveys, the first half of this year saw consumers growing more optimistic about the economy as inflation slowed; however, expectations of future inflation have surged since then, and consumers are becoming discouraged again. Discouraged consumers turn into non-confident consumers who tend to put away their wallets and walk away from discretionary purchases.

Since September, consumer expectations of higher inflation in 12 months have increased significantly to 4.4%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations in five years reached 3.2% as of October’s interim report, their highest level in over a decade. Despite the recent easing in the CPI data, this inflationary expectation pressures the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated.

Inflation expectations notwithstanding, consumers have enthusiastically supported the economy this year despite inflationary challenges. However, the upward trend in credit card delinquency rates indicates an increasingly stressed consumer. Figures from the Federal Reserve show that credit card delinquencies have risen to 2011 levels, and delinquent auto loans are at their highest since 2010. Though not at the extreme levels seen during the Great Financial Crisis (2007-2009), these delinquencies are not slowing and could quickly surge higher if stronger parts of the economy begin to falter.

Jobs

Employment continues to be the last bastion of strength in today’s economy and is important to watch. Jobs remain plentiful, and employees increasingly view employment as transactional (as opposed to long-term). While the unemployment rate remains at historic lows, it has trended upward recently, which could become worrisome.

The unemployment rate in October clocked in at 3.9%, quite low by historical standards but 0.5 percentage points higher than the low rate we saw earlier this year (3.4%).  Increases in the unemployment rate of at least 0.6 percentage points from a cyclical low have confirmed the onset of nearly every recession of the past 50 years, with only one false signal in 1959. Accordingly, the unemployment rate is now just 0.1 percentage points away from reaching this threshold, which would confirm the onset of a recession. The November monthly jobs report and the unemployment rate are scheduled to be released on Friday, December 8.

The Stock Markets: What? Me Worry?

Since the start of November, the S&P 500 Index has been up about 8.5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is up about 10.8%.

Rocket-boosted by the Magnificent Seven tech stocks (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla), the indexes would not be anywhere nearly as strong without them. While the combined seven stocks are up about 80% year-to-date, the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 Index are flat. While historically, a handful of stocks “carry” the indexes, we usually see better performance from the rest, and we’re largely not seeing that. Lately, the rally is showing signs of slowly broadening out, which is a good sign going into year's end.

If you look at the S&P 500 Index on an equal-weight basis (where each stock has an equal “vote,” as opposed to a weighted approach based on company size), the index would be up only 3.8% year-to-date. The Mid-cap 400 index is also up 3.8% year-to-date, and the Small Cap 600 is up 3.3%.

Since we’re in the 4^th quarter of a pre-election year, the markets have two reasons to be seasonally positive. True to form, November has reclaimed most of the losses from August to October and looks poised to take out the July high in December. As long as the S&P 500 Index holds the 4400 level, things look good. Daily new high prices among stocks that outnumber new low prices are also encouraging and add to the rally's strength.

My main concern is with the valuation of the Magnificent Seven Stocks. Compared with the Nifty Fifty Stocks in 1972 and the Tech bubble in 2000, these seven stocks are just as overvalued. Momentum trading combined with valuations this extreme can turn great companies into terrible investments, so buyers at these levels should beware. Should the drive to buy anything related to AI (Artificial Intelligence) cool off in 2024, these seven stocks will have a disproportionate effect on the indexes, driving down the markets quickly, especially since so many portfolio managers have piled into them as “safe havens.” I’m not saying to sell them now, but if you’re overexposed to them and have enjoyed the ride, it would be prudent to trim them at their current levels (this is not a recommendation to buy or sell.)

Recession Watch

A strong consumer, robust labor market, the housing wealth effect, and the lasting effects of a zero interest rate policy held in place too long have made 2023 recession callers look foolish (including me).

Underestimating the U.S. Consumer has always been a bad bet, especially when locked down for months, saving their stimulus checks and unspent wages and ultimately coming out of the gates splurging. While their savings are nearly depleted, I would not completely count them out just yet, and a recession in 2024 is definitely not a sure thing, although I still believe we will have one next year.

As discussed above, there are signs that the post-pandemic fiscal and monetary drugs are starting to wear off for the world’s economies, and a hangover might be on the horizon. Whether and when that hangover turns gross domestic product in a negative direction and, therefore, an economic recession, is anyone’s guess. I like what Bloomberg Points of Return writer John Authers wrote this week on that topic:

“…Having got this far, there’s now a pretty good chance the US can get through the next two years without a recession. But the odds still point more to a downturn. That explains the negativity in opinion polls and surveys of consumers, even if it completely fails to explain the enthusiasm among consumers when they go shopping. And then there’s the issue of stock market sentiment, which is utterly baffling.”

It would be understandable to read this post and think that things look grim and that it's time to batten down the hatches and sell everything. It's not. When it comes to discounting the future, the markets usually have it right (looking out 6-9 months), and we may just be experiencing some economic indigestion that will resolve itself, and the stock markets will challenge and exceed the all-time highs in 2024.

Election years are positive for a reason: the incumbents want to be re-elected, so you can't underestimate the levers they can pull to keep the economy firing on all cylinders and postpone any recession until a later year. Never underestimate what determined politicians can do.

What’s Going on in the Markets October 31, 2023

With so many global crosscurrents--another Middle East war, an uneven economy, stubborn inflation, and high interest rates, it’s no surprise that many will be happy to forget about October 2023. While nothing weighs as heavily as the horrific tragedies of the war in the Middle East, the stock markets saw their third consecutive down month after a terrific run up from the October 2022 bottom. Let’s look at what's weighing on the markets and what might be ahead.

Stubborn Inflation

Over the past year, I’ve expected inflation to retreat from its historically high level. But I've also stated in past writings that inflation pressures would be more stubborn than many on Wall Street believed.

After easing to 3.0%, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased for three consecutive months and is now at 3.7%. Furthermore, measures of underlying inflation have started to reaccelerate.

In the latest Personal Income and Outlays reports, inflation showed an unwillingness to continue its recent descent. On Friday, October 27, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for September showed inflation up 0.3% monthly (3.7% annualized). The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s (AKA The Fed) preferred measure of inflation.

While both inflation numbers are much improved over the 5%+ rates we saw earlier this year and last, they are a far cry from the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual inflation target.

Sticky Price CPI, which measures prices that are slower to change, like medical care, education, and housing, has resumed its increase. The annualized 3-month rate of change has shot up from 3.4% in July to over 4.4% last month. This is one of its highest readings of the past three decades outside of the post-pandemic surge. This suggests The Fed may have trouble getting inflation back to its 2% target.

Inflation measures are important not only because they erode the buying power of our dollars but also because they affect consumer sentiment, and sentiment influences consumer spending. Unhappy or non-confident consumers spend less, and less consumer spending can lead to an economic recession (which does not help keep stock prices up.)

High Interest Rates

To control inflation, The Fed adjusts short-term interest rates to cool consumer and business spending. The thinking is that higher interest rates discourage borrowing, which leads to lower demand, and lower demand presumably tends to portend lower prices.

The Federal Reserve meets about every six weeks to decide whether it will raise, lower, or hold short-term interest rates, considering various economic reports and factors. The last time they met was in September when they held short-term interest rates at 5.0%-5.25%.

In a meeting that concludes on Wednesday, November 1, they are widely expected to continue holding rates at this level. Many will listen to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments to assess the prospect of future higher or lower short-term interest rates. I think they’re done hiking rates but won’t hint at any rate reductions, which Wall Street is looking for.

The good news is that higher interest rates mean that cash is no longer “trash.” You can earn a 4.5%-5.5%+ return on your money market savings, CDs, and bonds. The bad news is that higher interest rates mean lower bond prices and may lead to an unprecedented 3^rd consecutive year of bond price declines (interest rates and bond prices are inversely correlated). In addition, higher interest rates on cash and bonds mean less of an urgency to take risks in the stock market, especially if one can get 5%-6% risk-free (no doubt that this sentiment has contributed to the pullback in the stock market over the last few months.)

Faltering Housing

Housing is one of the largest sources of wealth for consumers and a vital industry for the economy's health.

New Home Sales increased in September as homebuilders offered price-cut incentives and mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers. Pending Home Sales, which tracks unclosed transactions of existing homes, ticked up in September but remained at the third lowest reading in its history.

Like consumer and business sentiment, homebuilder confidence is a crucial indicator to follow. It takes the pulse of current attitudes and can be an excellent predictor of future housing activity. Despite its rebound in the first half of the year, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (Builder Confidence Survey) is again falling. Today's low confidence levels indicate a much weaker outlook and reflect the effects of rapidly rising interest rates.

Today’s mortgage rates are at a 23-year high and heading toward 8.0%. This is a staggering increase of almost five percentage points since its record low in early 2021 and the second-quickest rise in history. The only faster increase in mortgage rates occurred in the early 1980s – a move only marginally steeper than today’s. Predictably, this has a significant impact on housing affordability.

Current multi-decade-high mortgage rates would be much more digestible to homebuyers if home prices weren’t still in a bubble. Unfortunately for them, prices have hardly budged. Home prices have surged by nearly 60% over the past five years, putting a significant strain on affordability. This problem has been exacerbated by rising mortgage rates, causing the average mortgage payment to increase by 134% since early 2018. And this doesn’t even include the increases in property taxes, insurance, repairs, maintenance, dues, etc. As a result, this is perhaps the most unaffordable time in U.S. history to buy a home.

Cooling Sentiment

Consumer and Business Sentiments are crucial to watch as their recent rebounds seem to be running out of steam. As mentioned above, consumer sentiment is essential to encourage spending and keep the economy “humming.” Small business sentiment is important because it encourages hiring, capital investments, and expansion. There are several surveys and measures of consumer and business sentiment, including widely followed surveys by the Conference Board and the University of Michigan.

October’s preliminary consumer sentiment readings plunged by more than forecast and were well below their 70-year average. Both Current Conditions and Future Expectations were down significantly. Inflation Expectations for the year ahead rose by 0.6 percentage points while expected business conditions for the next year dropped by 19%.

The latest and final October consumer sentiment readings from the University of Michigan finished October at 0.8 points higher than its preliminary reading yet is 4.1 points below September’s final reading. A significant reason for the decline in Consumer Sentiment this month was a rebound in consumers’ inflation expectations for the year ahead, which jumped from 3.2% to 4.2%.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index has been below its 49-year average for the last 21 months. Among small business owners, significant concerns remain regarding inflation, labor availability, and future economic conditions. As small businesses often need capital to grow, they are the most affected by high interest rates, and it is no surprise they are worried about the future.

I’m concerned about business and consumer sentiment because the readings I’m seeing have rarely occurred outside of an oncoming recession. Business owners are struggling, and there are signs that strong consumers are starting to tighten their belts.

Another Middle East War

As the horrific events in the Middle East continue to develop and command the attention of the world, economic issues may seem relatively unimportant. However, the Israel-Hamas conflict creates geopolitical risks with potential global economic consequences, and it may be helpful to consider early projections and analysis of how these consequences might unfold.

Any impact comes when the global economy is fragile, already strained by the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, and facing challenges such as weak growth, economic fragmentation, high interest rates, and stubborn inflation.

On the other hand, the U.S. economy appears relatively strong by many measures, and the United States is the world's largest oil producer and thus relatively insulated from small shifts in the global oil supply that usually occur during wartime.

While U.S. military support of Israel will add to expenditures that have already been increased by the Ukraine war, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has indicated that the United States can support both allies. Of course, that will lead to even more inflation, causing spending deficits.

Many U.S. technology companies have production or research and development facilities in Israel. However, work in those facilities is expected to continue except for employees called for reserve duty.

So far, the U.S. stock market reaction to the war has been relatively muted. Historically, wars outside U.S. borders tend not to create lasting trouble for the domestic stock market.

Clearly, it is still early, and the economic situation can change anytime. For now, while the Israel-Hamas conflict is a tragic humanitarian crisis, it is not a reason to change your personal financial or investing strategy.

Wobbling Stock Markets

October has been living up to its reputation for being a volatile month in the stock markets and closing down for the third consecutive month (-2.2%). The S&P 500 index is down over 9% from the peak in July 2023. However, we are entering a seasonally favorable time of year in the markets. November to December tend to be stronger months of the year, but as a pre-election year, it has even more favorable seasonality. Finally, when the market is so strong as it was through July, historically, it has also portended a nice finish to the year.

But given the headwinds just discussed, any year-end rally could fail to meet expectations or, worse, not materialize.

There is a continuing debate about whether the October 2022 lows ended the bear (down trending) market that started in January 2022. Some assert that a new bull (up-trending) market was born and that we are in the early innings of an upward trend, the start of a new bull market. Others assert that the bear market is intact, and all that we’ve witnessed since October 2022 was an extended bear market rally, which is now over. Only in the fullness of time can we know which camp is right.

The bears will point out that it is unprecedented to have a 10% correction in the first year of a bull market. It’s also unusual to see small capitalization stocks struggle so much in the early stages of a new bull market. In fact, the small caps are down for the year and are at risk of undercutting their October 2022 lows. Thus, the outsized correction and narrowness of the rally from the October 2022 bottom gives me food for thought and leaves me a bit skeptical that we’re in a new bull market.

Currently, on the surface, the S&P 500 is up about 9.2% year to date. But if you take away the seven strongest tech stocks in the index, AKA the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla), the index would be only up slightly on the year. In fact, if you look at the equal-weighted S&P 500 index (where each stock gets an equal “vote” rather than being weighted by size), it is down 4.1% year-to-date. Clearly, most stocks are not participating in the “new bull market."

By all accounts, so far, third quarter 2023 corporate earnings are strong and beating expectations, though revenue growth is somewhat tepid. Much of the earnings growth comes from higher profit margins, meaning that cost savings are the primary driver of higher earnings, not strong and improving consumer demand.

Until seasonality asserts itself and strength re-emerges in the stock market, I believe caution and defensiveness are warranted for short-term investors. For long-term investors, this may be a time to pick some favorite positions you plan to keep for 3-5 years or longer. While this is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, this is when taking advantage of a stock market sale works in the long term. For our client portfolios, we remain hedged and recently slightly reduced our exposure to stocks, considering the risks discussed above.

Recession or No Recession?

When it comes to economic recessions, it’s a matter of when not if. So, while pundits continue to debate whether we’ll have a soft landing (no recession) or a hard landing (recession), they both might be right—just at different times.

The last recession we had in 2020, post-COVID, was short-lived thanks to the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed on the economy back then. This, in my opinion, has contributed to the inflation hangover we’re now experiencing. Pass the aspirin, please!

In my opinion, despite a still strong job market and robust consumer spending to date, the weight of evidence points to several areas of gradual deterioration in the economy that will lead to a recession by mid-2024. Admittedly, I thought we’d be in a recession with much lower housing prices by now. But I obviously underestimated the strength and durability of the consumer with wallets full of cash and credit cards looking to spend after an awful and extended COVID lockdown. And I clearly did not anticipate how fast mortgage interest rates would rise, taking existing homeowners with low-interest-rate mortgages out of the housing market and making the supply of homes as tight as it is.

Today, we have a federal reserve intent on taming inflation, so interest rates will be higher for longer, which is not stock-market friendly. While many might not dump their existing stocks in this new high-interest rate environment, they might not be as willing to take on more risk in a world where 5%-6% returns come “risk-free.” And while a stock market buyer's strike might not be as bad as all-out selling, it certainly doesn't help stock prices rise to the level of a new bull market.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source: InvesTech Research