2020: Not Your Average Election Year

If you decided to take a long nap on New Year's Eve and just woke up today, looked at your account statements, you might have yawned at how unchanged and boring the market must have been. You'd probably think, "on average, the market has been unchanged."

But that's the problem of averages when it comes to the stock market -- they can wall-paper over a lot of painful experiences, like the tech bubble of 1999-2000, and the housing bubble of 2006-2007.

Considering the health catastrophe created by COVID-19, the strong rebound in stocks since the late-March low is astounding, especially given the deep economic damage. But given that the stock market is a forward-looking discount mechanism, it suggests that the collective wisdom of investors is more optimistic than the evidence that we hear and read about every day.

Stock markets continue to express little concern about the many uncertainties in this environment. Stock market valuations have met or exceeded their pre-crisis levels by most measures and continue to expand despite the major ongoing risks. Existing home sales in June of 4.7 million exceeded a record level on the back of falling interest rates, even as the number of unemployment claims ticked up last week for the first time in four months.

Federal Reserve support, rock bottom interest rates, the re-opening trade, and stronger economic data have helped. I also believe investors are looking past this year’s hit to corporate profits and are expecting an upturn in 2021.

The jump in daily COVID cases has created some renewed volatility, and it bears watching, but it has yet to knock the bulls off course. New all-time highs in the stock market in the weeks ahead would not surprise me one bit (the NASDAQ index has already done it). Even more surprising, it's entirely possible that we've embarked on a new bull market.

While we are cautiously optimistic and giving this market the benefit of the doubt, we are maintaining our defensive allocation, primarily due to the persistent level of exuberance in the markets and resulting current overvaluation, as well as the uncertainty around possible rollbacks in re-openings.

Ultimately, the path of the virus will play the biggest role in how the economic outlook unfolds. Some folks are itching to get back to normal, while others remain on guard against the disease and are taking a more cautious approach. It may take time for some businesses to fully recover. Some never will.

Last month I opined, “I don’t expect a return to a pre-Covid jobless rate anytime soon. But investors are betting that an economic bottom is in sight.”

Try to look past continued volatility. With elections coming up this year, I expect more wacky market moves to go along with the typical wacky political moves we always see in a presidential election year. Regardless, based on recent economic reports, I think we hit bottom in April.

Those worried about a return to the March lows currently don't have much evidence in terms of stock market action to support their worries. With so much money on the sidelines, it seems that every little dip is getting bought by those left behind in the panic.

If you liken the February-March stock market crash to an earthquake, then sure, you may feel some tremors and aftershocks for months, but the likelihood of another earthquake within a short period of time is highly improbable.

What to Do

None of us expected an economic upheaval spawned by a health crisis as the year began. But it pays to discuss some of the lessons and takeaways from the COVID-19 crisis.  And as I discuss them, you’ll probably recognize some of the themes (yes I do repeat myself frequently, like a nagging parent). Let’s not forget that the fundamentals—the core financial precepts—are always the building blocks of any credible financial plan.

1. Money at the end of your month

Saving for an emergency cannot be underestimated. Six to nine months of spending needs is optimal. But there is an added benefit—financial peace of mind.

It’s reflected in the proverb “The borrower is servant to the lender.” It’s not that I would counsel against a mortgage for a home or a reasonable loan for a car. But accumulation of wants (not needs) with (credit card) debt doesn’t bring contentment.

Instead, it brings stress. I have seen it over and over. You want money at the end of your month, not month at the end of your money.

A financial cushion eliminates one of life’s worries.

2. Wants vs. needs

Many of us have learned to do without certain things during quarantine. Whether we wanted to or not, we were forced to cut back on certain items.

Ask yourself this question, “As businesses reopen, are there things I can do without? Can I continue to cut back and still maintain my lifestyle?”

Many of our entertainment options have been curtailed. As we emerge from our homes and businesses re-open, are there items that can be trimmed from the budget?

It’s not a cold turkey approach, i.e. no more eating out, sporting events, travel or theater. But can we reduce expenditures on some items without sacrificing our overall lifestyle?

3. Diversification and tolerance for risk

We’ve just witnessed an unusual amount of stock market volatility. Calling it a roller coaster does not fully capture the experience (and most amusement parks are still shuttered!)

The major indexes have erased much of their losses. Yet, how did you fare emotionally when stocks took a beating? Now is the time to reevaluate your tolerance for risk. We’d be happy to assist and make any adjustments as they relate to your longer-term financial goals.

4. Expecting the unexpected

From its March 2009 low to the February 2020 high, the bull market ran for over 10 years (measured by the S&P 500 Index). We know bear markets are inevitable, but I recognize that the onset of a steep decline may be unnerving.

Nonetheless, a well-diversified portfolio of stocks has historically had an upside bias. That upside bias is incorporated into the recommendations we make, even as our recommendations are tailored to your individual circumstances and goals.

Further, a mix of fixed income and contra-funds helped cushion the decline. While we monitor events and the markets over a shorter-term period, let’s be careful not to take our eyes off your longer-term goals.

Be proactive, not reactive

The ideas above are a broad overview and individual circumstances may vary.

Taking inventory is critical. It’s half the battle. Be proactive, not reactive. You may find you are in a much better position than you realized. As always, we are here to help.

I hope you’ve found this review to be helpful and educational.

I understand the uncertainty facing all of us. We are grappling with an economic and a health care crisis. It’s something none of us have ever faced. We have addressed various issues with you, but I have an open-door policy. If you have questions or concerns, let’s have a conversation. That’s what I’m here for.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

What's Going on in the Markets March 28, 2020

The unprecedented market volatility continued as Friday's downside action capped off an otherwise strong week. A robust three-day bounce of about 20% from Monday's lows saw us give back roughly 1/4 of the weekly gains on Friday.

Still, in all, it was a great week for the bulls. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, gained about 10.25%, reclaiming about 1/3rd of the bear market losses incurred over the prior four weeks. This doesn't mean, however, that the bulls are out of the woods and ready to run free in the fields. Bear markets rarely end after only five weeks, especially when volatility remains as high as it currently is.

So far what we've witnessed this week seems to be classic bear market action. Whenever the markets get so far stretched to the downside, just like a rubber band, some sort of snap-back action is to be expected. Indeed, as I've described in previous postings, a "wicked rip your face off rally of 20-50%" was to be expected. So yes, we could get more upside in the short term.

What we have experienced in the markets over the past five weeks is a "waterfall" decline followed by a robust bounce that gets many investors to think that the worst may be over. Most of the time, after convincing many that it's safe to jump back in, we get a reversal of the bounce. If, in turn, the reversal plays out in traditional fashion, then the lows that were hit this past Monday will eventually be revisited and tested to see if they'll hold.

If the lows don't hold, then anyone buying into the bounce will be holding "losers" and will likely join the selling with anything they bought into the bounce and then some. If the lows do hold, then we will likely see a more durable (lasting) rally which may confirm that the worst of the decline is over for the intermediate-term. That may be the "safer" time to make more meaningful additions to your portfolio (but check with your investment advisor or talk to us).

The optimists are hoping that the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus will backstop stocks and prevent that retest from occurring, or that Monday's lows will hold. The pessimists are concerned that the uncertainty of the coronavirus and its economic consequences will keep buyers on the sidelines, and that more sellers will emerge.

The response of both the Federal Reserve and the federal government has been unprecedented. The Federal Reserve outright stated this week that it’s willing to provide unlimited monetary stimulus, announcing program after program, as its balance sheet exceeds $5 trillion for the first time. That's $5 trillion with a "T".  Yes, $5,000,000,000,000. Pause for a moment and let that number sink in. I'll wait.

Similarly, the $2 trillion stimulus package passed by Congress and signed by the President on Friday is more than double the $800 billion package passed in 2009 to ease the Great Recession. These efforts will dampen the economic fallout that has already begun to take place, but the full impact that will be realized is still largely unknown. I believe that more stimulus is going to be necessary.

The somewhat expected explosion in jobless claims on Thursday to a record 3.3 million (it had been averaging about 220,000-230,000 for many weeks) coupled with Friday's sharp drop in reported Consumer Sentiment (no surprise given what's going on in the world) indicates that the ongoing economic damage will likely be significant.

While Monday may possibly have marked an intermediate-term bottom in the market, it remains to be seen if the risks which were identified in prior posts (e.g., stock market and real estate overvaluation, low-quality corporate debt levels at a record high, yield curve inversion) will be unwound or not. The excesses that have been built up over the course of this economic cycle in terms of stock market overvaluations, inflated housing prices, and low-quality corporate debt remain in place for the most part and are clearly risks going forward. The depth and duration of this recession will be determined primarily by what happens in these key areas of vulnerability.

As we navigate through this extreme volatility, we will depend on key technical indicators to confirm whether or not Monday’s low was the bottom. Because I have serious doubts that this is the case, we used the bounce this week to reduce our overall investment allocations to stocks and exposure to riskier corporate bonds for clients. The next several weeks should provide valuable insight into whether breadth (the number of stocks going up versus the number of stocks going down) and leadership are truly stabilizing, and just how much of the economic risk is actually behind us.

While we are seeing unprecedented government support, we are also experiencing an unprecedented event that will have ramifications for every single person in the world. It would be quite foolish to believe that this monumental event can be priced into the market very quickly or easily.

At some point, there will be exceptional opportunities and they will be even better if we remain patient and wait for sustained positive price action to develop. While this extreme volatility may be good market action for very short-term stock market traders, if you're looking to build longer-term positions, it is still too early to put any substantial capital at risk.

Nibbling a little on stocks "here and there" is OK, but I recommend that you never buy a full position at once. Always ask yourself if you're comfortable holding the position and adding to it if it went down by another 25-40%. If you're not comfortable doing that, then it's too soon for you to buy because you'll likely sell at the worst possible time.

Enjoy the weekend and please stay safe. I am here to answer any questions you might have.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

What's Going on in the Markets March 23, 2020

As if we didn’t have enough adjectives to describe the week before last's market action (unprecedented, brutal, relentless), there must be no more words to describe the terrible equity markets again last week, as a massive 4000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was second to only one other over the last nine decades.

The other indexes (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000) didn't fare much better either, as the losses posted by the average stock and every market gauge over the last month have been staggering. I'm not going to sugar-coat it: this has been one ugly market.

Indeed, we are now in Bear Market #26 over the last 90+ years, and though the speed of this sell-off has been unparalleled, the magnitude of the decline (at least for the S&P 500 index) at present is a bit less than average. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean it can't get worse, but it also doesn't mean it can't get better.

Over the past year, as I met with clients for our annual reviews, I sheepishly explained the large cash positions and growing hedges (options sold against the portfolio and bear market funds), why I and other portfolio managers felt that there were very few good values in the market and that we were under-invested for good reasons. Heck, even the most seasoned of portfolio managers weren't buying the best value stocks out there, and growth stocks trounced the returns on value stocks for years. Stocks like Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Netflix all marched higher on a seemingly daily basis, while great blue-chip value stocks like Haliburton, Schlumberger, CVS, and IBM languished in the bargain bin.

As I met with prospects over the past year, I know that I lost the business of at least two of them that had 90%+ exposure to the stock market. When I was asked what my plan would be for their portfolios, I explained that their portfolio risk far outweighed their personal risk tolerance and that I would immediately and significantly lighten up on stocks and stock funds. Needless to say, when I heard back from them, they said my approach was too conservative and decided to "go in a different direction". I can only hope that they heeded my warning.

Day after day, week after week, month after month (after the December 2018 low), the markets would question my defensive stance, and no doubt quite a few clients were unhappy being under-invested and not making as much money as the markets were. Every market pullback from a new record high was aggressively bought up, and we had no choice but to nibble here and there, knowing that we might have to stay close to the exits on those purchases. I've been doing this a long time, and as I've said before, I've not witnessed such persistent selling without a robust bounce ever in my career, making unscathed exits nearly impossible.

What's Next?

That's enough about what's happened. Most are interested in what's ahead. More pain or gain?

Unfortunately, the market loathes uncertainty, and with the COVID-19 shutdown of most swaths of the nation's economy, uncertainty is what we have in droves. Stocks trade on corporate earnings forecasts, and to-date, most companies have withdrawn their forecasts because of so many unknowns.

The stock market is what's known in portfolio management vernacular as "a forward-looking discounting mechanism", where the crowd sniffs out what's to come 6-12 months in the future. Everything you know as fact today is already factored into the market, or so goes what's known as "Modern Portfolio Theory". When the markets are rising, they're looking ahead 6-12 months out and forecasting what's to come, and they must be positive on the intermediate-term future. The opposite is true as well.

What we're witnessing in the daily "thrashings" up and down in the stock markets is the manifestation of the uncertainty as everyone tries to price stocks for "what's next". My best guess is that we're still in for a rocky bottoming period with new lowers lows likely ahead.

But it's not all gloomy. While last week's markets closed on the lows, we did see some "green shoots" to indicate that the volume of selling was waning, and there was some risk appetite returning to the markets. The small-capitalization stocks, often the riskiest of stocks, outperformed their "peers" on Friday. The volatility index did not make a new high on Friday. The number of stocks hitting their 52-week lows did not expand into the end of the week. And the number of stocks going up versus those going down got better (it's called breadth in this business).

When Should We Buy?

I'm heartened and encouraged that, among the calls and e-mails that I received last week, the preponderance of them were asking, "when should we buy?" It’s the right question now, as we continue to navigate this volatile bear market, of when it will be safe to start buying.  In that regard, history can provide valuable guidance.

The 1987 bear market is one historical precedent that is perhaps most like today's. Major indexes came off an equally frothy rally (as we've seen since December 2018) with the S&P 500 showing a strong year-to-date gain leading up to the August 25, 1987 peak. The bear market unfolded quickly after the top, losing 20% in just 38 days (this one in 2020 took 19 trading days). The bear market bottomed in December 1987 as selling pressure abated significantly and buying pressure took over. That led to one of the longest-running bull markets in history.

The Financial Crisis from 2007 to 2009 was a more protracted downturn that lasted 18 months. The lessons from that bear market include the observation that there are often enticing rallies on the way down which are called "bull traps", such as the rebounds in March and July of 2008. Don't get sucked into them.

As market losses deepen, it’s crucial to remember that headlines are the gloomiest near the market bottom, so paying attention to the media in March 2009 would have kept you out of the market for months, and you would have missed out on a 50% rally within just a few months. This time it's no different -- the fear mongers are out in full force with their 50% negative growth forecasts and S&P 500 index going to 1100 (down 75%) prognostications.

Stock market leadership is one of the most reliable indicators that a bear market bottom is in place. As a new bull market emerged in 2009, abating selling pressure and emerging buying pressure again provided the timeliest signal to start buying. Our client portfolios back then were defensively allocated with an invested position of about 50% (of maximum risk) at the March 9 bottom. As the selling abated and buying pressure ramped up, we quickly stepped up to 77% and then moved to 97% invested in June 2009 as other proprietary indicators confirmed the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

The important lesson is: Don’t try to second guess the bottom and don’t try to anticipate it. With no evidence of selling pressure abating and buying pressure pretty much absent currently,  I will let the weight of evidence tell me when the time is right to start increasing our invested allocation. Now is not that time; it's far too soon to buy in my opinion (and that could change, tomorrow, next week or the week after).

Today, unfortunately, every indication is that this bear market probably has further to run as the economy comes under increasing pressure. As I wait for the evidence to drop into place, our high cash and hedged positions are now two of the most valuable assets in our portfolio as we approach that future buying opportunity, probably the best one we've seen in over ten years. Meanwhile, try not to get sucked into bear market rallies-use them to lighten up on positions if you're overallocated to the stock market.

Never lose sight of the Warren Buffet quotation, “Unless you can watch your stock decline by 50 percent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market,” and we know that bear markets are not an unusual part of the investment process. It's the price we pay for superior returns over the long term.

Of course, legendary investor Peter Lynch said it best: "The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them." I'll add, as I paraphrase well-known TV host Jim Cramer, no one ever made money in the markets by panicking.

Please be safe and stay healthy during this difficult period of time in our lives. Don't hesitate to contact me if you have any questions or if I can be of any help.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source: Investech Research

What's Going on in the Markets March 19, 2020

What a day. What a week. What a month.

The S&P 500 index lost another 5.2% yesterday - which is somewhat of a relief because it was down over 9% at one point during the day. The index did manage to close above Tuesday's low. That is potentially bullish. It's somewhat funny to say, but the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) was the best performing of the major indexes, losing just over 3%. As daily swings of 3-5% become the norm, we become somewhat numb to them. Not fun.

Although there was no direct catalyst for the sell-off Wednesday, stocks erased nearly all of Tuesday’s big gains. Energy was massacred by another big drop in crude oil prices following reports that Saudi Arabia has said it will continue record-high oil production "over the coming months," accelerating its price war with Russia. Oil prices have been sinking as the Covid-19 pandemic reduced demand, and Russia in recent weeks failed to agree to an OPEC proposal to reduce oil production. West Texas Intermediate crude on Wednesday plunged a shocking 22.7% to trade at $21 per barrel. It is now at the lowest level since 2002! The good news? Lower prices at the pump....if you can leave your home.

Stocks found no relief from reports that the White House is urging lawmakers for $1 trillion in stimulus to cushion American workers and the economy from the impact of the coronavirus. Lawmakers were warned by the Trump administration that US unemployment could jump to 20% if no financial aid measures were passed. Lawmakers aren't wasting time getting stimulus to the markets and taxpayers, which is good news.

With the dual plight of an oil production glut and the coronavirus global pandemic, global commerce has been left at a virtual standstill and has undercut the lives and financial balance of millions of people who work in the service industry.

I have to say, this is one of the worst times I've ever seen in my 30-years in the markets.  Why? Because of the velocity and relentlessness of the selling. The Financial Crisis offered many opportunities to buy in, even while the market was falling overall.  Today's market has been a one-way street. Fifteen of the last twenty days have been down. Back-to-back up days haven't taken place since early February. Household names that would typically be the last ones to drop, have taken big hits.

On a positive note, all of the ingredients are in place for a large, multi-day oversold bounce. I'm not trying to paint a bright picture. Indeed, it is likely to take months of choppy or declining stock prices to work through the problems that have been exposed by the action over the past three weeks. But we will find a bottom, and I'm thinking sooner than later. All of the government stimulus and federal reserve easing being put out there is going to find its way into stocks one way or another.

Even during the worst bear markets, there are always very strong "rip your face off" rallies that work off the oversold conditions. We are on the cusp of one of those rallies.

At the lows yesterday, conditions felt worse than they did on the ugly markets of Christmas Eve, 2018. They also felt a lot like they did in October 2008. Back then, the S&P lost about 1/3 of its value in just three weeks. Then it exploded almost 20% higher in one week. In this market, we could get that in a day!

Of course, that wasn't the end of the decline. That didn't happen until March 2009. And, there were multiple swift declines and violent oversold rallies in the months in between. So, we're probably in for something similar for the next several months.

But, for the next few days, the market is set up for a "rip your face off" oversold bounce. We could see a 20-25% "pop" from here - which would boost the S&P 500 index back up towards 2,900 or so. A really wild move could get the index back up to 3150.

The bigger point is that yesterday certainly felt like a seller's exhaustion. That sets us up for an oversold bounce, which could be quite substantial. Following that, we're in for a several month-long period of big declines and big bounces as we carve out a bottom. Be ready for it if you're overexposed to the markets and have been "losing sleep". Use the bounces to reduce exposure or hedge your portfolios. We can help.

Whatever you do, this is not a market to chase big moves in stocks or funds. You will surely get another chance to get into this market if the rally is sustainable, so if you miss an initial move, be patient. You'll get many chances to buy back in. You don't need to be the first one into the foxhole.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

What's Going on in the Markets - March 17, 2020

If you took a long hibernation nap starting on Christmas Eve 2018, woke up yesterday and looked at the markets, you'd think that nothing happened. As it turns out, the entire market rally since that day has been re-possessed in what has been the fastest 20%+ sell-off in history.

The Coronavirus infected market continued its downward ways as panicky investors dumped stocks in droves yesterday because of a feared economic recession. With the exception of treasury bonds, all stocks, sectors, industries, commodities (including gold and silver) were hit hard in yesterday's trading.  We are now officially in a bear market, with a mild recession (two consecutive calendar quarters of negative growth) hitting in the next few months being a much stronger possibility.

We have seen a lot of bear markets unfold over the past 40 years, but this one is unique in several aspects:

1.     First, the trigger came from an external event (i.e., Coronavirus) that is totally unrelated to monetary policy. In fact, the Fed has been aggressively “supporting” the market since its policy reversal in December 2018.

2.     Second, there were virtually no confirmation flags of a probable or imminent recession. Instead, consumer confidence was holding near 50-year highs, and the Leading Economic Index had just broken upward to a new all-time high.

3.     Third, the selling has been extraordinarily intense and indiscriminate. In some aspects, this reflects the type of selling panic normally seen near the END of a bear market instead of at the beginning.

The bad news is that we do not have many –or any– historical precedents upon which to rely with respect to the Coronavirus pandemic. The good news is that our client portfolios were defensively positioned with a high cash reserve and bear market funds prior to this panic selling, and has successfully protected against over 30-50% of the downside loss. And with our more conservative sector weighting, it would have been more resilient if not for the universal selling.

With yesterday’s market closing on the low, the volatility is clearly not over. History indicates it would be a mistake to sell additional holdings into this waterfall decline - at least at this time and without any solid warning flags of recession. Nonetheless, if you're worried about your portfolio and are losing sleep, then you probably have too big of an allocation to equities, and it would therefore be prudent to consider lightening up into any bounce that the market offers (which thus far have not lasted much more than an hour or two).

On Friday, President Trump declared the Covid-19 Coronavirus a national emergency, opening the door for an infusion of federal funds to ease the effects of the outbreak at home. In response, the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average index) rallied more than 1400 points in the final 30 minutes of trading, erasing much of Thursday’s record down day.

Despite that positive reaction on Wall Street on Friday, this past weekend saw an escalation of Coronavirus impact and particularly of fear – with travel restrictions and business closures. Although this effect could still be transitory, it's possible that the unwinding of the Fed’s moral hazard (false investor confidence) on Wall Street could have a more lasting impact on the economic and stock market outlook. Even a 1% emergency rate cut and $700B of stimulus offered by the federal reserve could not stop another record decline in the stock market yesterday.

With market conditions as they are, a robust multi-day rally is expected. Indeed, after a lock limit down on the markets again yesterday at 7% down, we had a 5% lock limit up rally in the overnight futures market (Monday night). That could provide for a nice turnaround Tuesday if the bounce carries through the trading day.

While I'm getting calls and e-mails from clients concerned about how far this decline has gone, I'm also getting a lot of calls and e-mails about buying into this decline. Based on what I'm seeing, it seems to be a bit too early to buy, and probably too late to sell. While I thought we might have seen investor capitulation to the downside on the open yesterday morning, that thought proved fleeting as we briefly bounced and came back to close on the lows. That is not encouraging price action. And the fact that so many people are still anxious to buy this "dip" leads me to believe that the bottom is not yet in.

Nibbling on some stocks or funds at these levels isn't a terrible idea, but I prefer an approach that sees us bounce, see where the bounce runs out of steam, and watch for a re-test of yesterday's lows (to see if they hold) at some point in the near future. If the re-test succeeds, then it might be "off to the races" for the markets. If it fails, then look out below.

For that reason, I tend to be patient in buying back into a vicious bear market that will fool you into thinking that the selling is all over, only to drop your recent stock or fund purchase by 20-25% in less than a day.  Averaging down sounds like a great idea until you're down 25-50% on a position in a day or two. It's often better to wait for the re-test of the lows rather than jumping in with both feet too soon. Sure, the market could make you whole and profitable in a matter of months, but if you're looking to compound your annual returns at the highest rate possible, shortening the recovery period to get back to even makes patience essential.

In my opinion, it's probably better to use short-term market strength to trim some positions if you're overexposed to the markets and need to reduce overall risk. If you've been stressed out about your portfolio, IRA or 401(k), then use the bounces to reduce stock and bond exposure. It never hurts to reduce your risk, but please consult with your advisor (or me) before taking action.

According to Andrew Thrasher, CMT, comparing the current S&P 500 index decline to past bear markets, there hasn’t been a time in history that a bear market has begun with such a severe and speedy decline. Not the Great Depression. Not Black Monday in 1987. But out of every bear market before this one, a new bull market was born. This one will be no different. Just be patient as there will be plenty of time to jump into the next bull market.

Meanwhile, I hope you'll stay safe and healthy during this health crisis. Take every precaution you can to keep your family and you as healthy as possible. Like every crisis before this one, this one too shall pass. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to get in touch with me.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source: InvesTech Research