What Persistent Inflation Could Mean for the U.S. Economy

Economic reports of late seem to point to a weakening economy and stubborn inflation.

On April 30, the Employment Cost Index for the first calendar quarter of 2024 showed a 1.2% increase (4.2% year-over-year); that was 25% higher than the consensus estimate of 0.9%.

The FHFA House Price Index for February 2024 was much hotter than expected, coming in at 1.2% versus 0.1% expected (7.0% year-over-year.) Similarly, the February Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index came in at 0.6% versus 0.1% expected (7.3% year-over-year.)

At the same time, two more economic reports were released on April 30.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 37.9 (versus 45 expected).

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index also came in far below expectations (97 versus 104 expected).

The stock markets were understandably confused: Normally, lower economic activity means lower inflation. Instead, what we got was higher inflation and lower economic activity.

In the stock markets, confusion equals selling now and asking questions later. That’s what we are seeing now.

Persistant Inflation

On April 10, 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, and the increase in CPI — the most commonly cited measure of inflation — was higher than expected. The rate for all items (headline inflation) was 3.5% over the previous year, while the "core CPI" rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was even higher at 3.8%. The month-over-month change was also higher than anticipated at 0.4%. (1)

The stock market then dropped sharply on this news and continued to slide over the following days, while economists engaged in public handwringing over why their projections had been wrong and what the higher numbers might mean for the future path of interest rates. Most projections were off by just 0.1% — core CPI was expected to increase by 3.7% instead of 3.8% — which hardly seems earth-shattering to the casual observer. But this small difference suggested that inflation was proving more resistant to the Federal Reserve's high interest-rate regimen (raising interest rates is one of the most common ways to curb spending and corporate investing to reduce inflationary pressures.) (2)

It's important to remember that the most dangerous battle against inflation seems to have been won. CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, and there were fears of runaway inflation similar to the 1980s. That did not happen; inflation declined steadily through the end of 2023. The issue now is that there has been upward movement during the first three months of 2024.(3) This is best seen by looking at the monthly rates, which capture the current situation better than the 12-month rates. March 2024 was the third increase month that points to higher inflation (see chart).

High for longer

While price increases hit consumers directly in the pocketbook, the stock market reacted primarily to what stubborn inflation might mean for the benchmark federal funds rate and U.S. businesses. From March 2022 to July 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or AKA the Fed) raised the funds rate from near-zero to the current range of 5.25%–5.5% to slow the economy and hold back inflation.

At the end of 2023, with inflation moving firmly toward the Fed's target of 2%, the FOMC projected three quarter-percentage point decreases in 2024, and some observers expected the first decrease might be this spring. Now it's clear that the Fed will have to wait to reduce rates. (4)(5)

Higher interest rates make it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow. For businesses, this can hold back expansion and cut into profits when revenue is used to service debt. This is especially difficult for smaller companies, which often depend on debt to grow and sustain operations. Tech companies and banks are also sensitive to high rates. (6)

As mentioned above, in theory, high interest rates should hold back consumer spending and help reduce prices by suppressing demand. So far, however, consumer spending has remained strong. In March 2024, personal consumption expenditures — the standard measure of consumer spending — rose at an unusually strong monthly rate of 0.8% in current dollars or 0.5% when adjusted for inflation. (7)

The job market has also stayed strong, with unemployment below 4% for 26 consecutive months and wages rising steadily. (8)

The fear of keeping interest rates too high for too long is that it could slow the economy, but that is not the case, making it difficult for the Fed to justify rate cuts.

What's driving inflation?

The Consumer Price Index measures price changes in a fixed market basket of goods and services, and some inputs are weighted more heavily than others.

The cost of shelter is the largest single category, accounting for about 36% of the index and almost 38% of the March increase in CPI. (9) The good news is that measurements of shelter costs — primarily actual rent and estimated rent that homeowners might receive if they rented their homes — tend to lag current price changes, and other measures suggest that rents are leveling or going down. (10)

Two lesser components contributed well above their weight. Gas prices, which are always volatile, comprised only 3.3% of the index but accounted for 15% of the overall increase in CPI. Motor vehicle insurance prices comprised just 2.5% of the index but accounted for more than 18% of the increase. Together, shelter, gasoline, and motor vehicle insurance drove 70% of March CPI inflation. On the positive side, food prices comprised 13.5% of the index and rose by only 0.1%, effectively reducing inflation. (11)

While the Fed pays close attention to the CPI, its preferred inflation measure is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which places less emphasis on shelter costs, includes a broader range of inputs, and accounts for changes in consumer behavior. Due to these factors, PCE inflation tends to run lower than CPI. The annual increase in March was 2.7% for all items and 2.8% for core PCE, excluding food and energy. The monthly increase was 0.3% for both measures. (12)

Although these figures are closer to the Fed's 2% target, they are not low enough, given strong employment and consumer spending, to suggest that the Fed will reduce interest rates anytime soon. It's also unlikely that the Fed will raise rates.

The Fed seems poised to give current interest rates more time to push inflation to a healthy level, ideally without slowing economic activity. (13)

And since higher interest rates mean more competition for investment dollars and lower corporate earnings, stock markets don’t tend to react favorably, especially when 3-4 interest rate cuts were expected earlier this year.

The Fed issues its next interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon, May 1, 2024. No change in interest rates is all but a given. However, what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says about the recent economic data and the Fed’s stance on when future rate cuts are coming will no doubt be parsed word for word for clues when the press conference is convened.

Please pass the popcorn.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Footnotes:

 1, 3, 8–9, 11) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024

 2)The New York Times, April 10, 2024

4) Federal Reserve, 2023

5) Forbes, December 5, 2023

6) The Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2024

7, 12) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2024

10) NPR, April 18, 2024

13) Bloomberg, April 19, 2024

What You Must Know About the Tax Return Deadline

It’s that time of year, folks, and I wish I were talking about spring. The federal income tax filing deadline for individuals is fast approaching—generally Monday, April 15, 2024. For taxpayers living in Maine or Massachusetts, you get a couple of extra days to procrastinate—your deadline is April 17, 2024.

The IRS has also postponed the deadline for certain disaster-area taxpayers to file federal income tax returns and make tax payments. The current list of eligible localities and other details for each disaster are always available on the IRS website's Tax Relief in Disaster Situations page. Interest and penalties are suspended until the postponed deadline for affected taxpayers.

If I refer to the April 15 deadline in this article, you can assume I also mean any other postponed original deadline that applies to you.

Need More Time?

If you cannot file your federal income tax return by the April (or other) due date, you can file for an extension by the April 15 due date using IRS Form 4868, “Application for Automatic Extension of Time to File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return.” Most software packages can electronically file this form for you and, if necessary, remit a payment.

Filing this extension gives you until October 15, 2024, to file your federal income tax return. You don’t have to explain why you’re asking for the extension, and the IRS will contact you only if your extension is denied and explain the reason(s). There are no allowable extensions beyond October 15 unless extended by law, or you’re affected by a federally declared disaster area.

Assuming you owe a payment on April 15, you can file for an automatic extension electronically without filing Form 4868. Suppose you make an extension payment electronically via IRS Direct Pay or the Electronic Federal Tax Payment System (EFTPS) by April 15. In that case, no extension form has to be filed (see Pay What You Owe below for more information).

An extension of time to file your 2023 calendar year income tax return also extends the time to file Form 709, “Gift and generation-skipping transfer (GST) tax returns” for 2023.

Special rules apply if you're a U.S. citizen or resident living outside the country or serving in the military outside the country on the regular due date of your federal income tax return. If so, you’re allowed two extra months to file your return and pay any amount due without requesting an extension. Interest, currently at 8% (but not penalties), will still be charged on payments made after the regular due date without regard to the extended due date.

You can pay the tax and file your return or Form 4868 for additional filing time by June 17, 2024. If you request an extension because you were out of the country, check the box on line 8 of the form.

If you file for an extension, you can file your tax return any time before the extension expires. And there’s no need to attach a copy of Form 4868 to your filed income tax return.

Tip #1: By statute, certain federal elections must be made with a timely filed return or extension and cannot be made after the original due date has passed. For example, if you’re a trader and want to elect trader tax status for the current tax year (2024), it must be made by April 15, 2024, with your timely filed return or attached to your extension. Once April 15 has passed, you are barred from making the election until the following tax year. Some elections may be permanently barred after the regular due date, so check with your tax advisor to see if you need a timely filed election with your return or extension.

Tip #2: For proof of a timely snail-mailed extension, especially for those with a relatively large payment, be sure to mail it by certified mail, return receipt requested (always request proof of delivery regardless of the method of transportation.)

Caveat: Generally, the IRS has three years from the original due date of your return to examine it and assess additional taxes (six years if fraud is suspected). If you extend your return, the three (or six) year “clock” does not start ticking until you file it, so essentially, by extending your return, you are extending the statute of limitations. But contrary to popular belief, requesting an extension does NOT increase your odds of an examination.

Pay What You Owe

One of the biggest mistakes you can make is not filing your return because you owe money. If the bottom line on your return shows that you owe tax, file and pay the amount due in full by the due date if possible. If you cannot pay what you owe, file the return (or extension) and pay as much as you can afford. You'll owe interest and possibly penalties on the unpaid tax, but you will limit the penalties assessed by filing your return on time. You may be able to work with the IRS to pay the unpaid balance via an installment payment agreement (interest applies.)

It's important to understand that filing for an automatic extension to file your return does not provide additional time to pay your taxes. When you file for an extension, you must estimate the amount of tax you will owe; you should pay this amount (or as much as you can) by the April 15 (or other) filing due date.  If you don't, you will owe interest, and you may owe penalties as well. If the IRS believes that your estimate of taxes was not reasonable, it may void your extension, potentially causing you to owe failure to file penalties and late payment penalties as well.

There are several alternative ways to pay your taxes besides via check. You can pay online directly from your bank account using Direct Pay or EFTPS, a digital wallet such as Click to Pay, PayPal, Venmo, or cash using a debit or credit card (additional processing fees may apply). You can also pay by phone using the EFTPS or debit or credit card. For more information, go to Make a Payment.

Tax Refunds

The IRS encourages taxpayers seeking tax refunds to file their tax returns as soon as possible. The IRS anticipates most tax refunds being issued within 21 days of the IRS receiving a tax return if 1) the return is filed electronically, 2) the tax refund is delivered via direct deposit, and 3) there are no issues with the tax return. To help minimize delays in processing, the IRS encourages people to avoid paper tax returns whenever possible.

To check on your federal income tax refund status, wait five business days after electronic filing and go to the IRS page: Where’s My Refund? Your state may provide a similar page to look up state refund status.

State and Local Income Tax Returns

Most states and localities have the same April 15 deadline and will conform with postponed federal deadlines due to federally declared disasters or legal holidays. Accordingly, most states and localities will accept your federal extension automatically (to extend your state return) without filing any state extension forms, assuming you don’t owe a balance on the regular due date. Otherwise, your state or locality may have its own extension form you can use to send in with your payment. Most states also now accept electronic payments online instead of a filed extension form with payment. Never assume that a federal extension will extend your state return; some do not. Always check to be sure.

Tip: If you want to cover all your bases, if your federal extension is lost or invalidated for any reason, you may want to file a state paper or online extension to extend the return correctly. It rarely happens, but sometimes, it is better to be safe than sorry.

IRA Contributions

Contributions to an individual retirement account (IRA) for 2023 can be made up to the April 15 due date for filing the 2023 federal income tax return (this deadline cannot be extended except by statute). However, certain disaster-area taxpayers granted relief may have additional time to contribute.

If you had earned income last year, you may be able to contribute up to $6,500 for 2023 ($7,500 for those age 50 or older by December 31, 2023) up until your tax return due date, excluding extensions. For most people, that date is Monday, April 15, 2024.

You can contribute to a traditional IRA, a Roth IRA, or both. Total contributions cannot exceed the annual limit or 100% of your taxable compensation, whichever is less. You may also be able to contribute to an IRA for your spouse for 2023, even if your spouse had no earned income.

Making a last-minute contribution to an IRA may help reduce your 2023 tax bill. In addition to the potential for tax-deductible contributions to a traditional IRA, you may also be able to claim the Saver's Credit for contributions to a traditional or Roth IRA, depending on your income.

Even if your traditional IRA contribution is not deductible, and you are ineligible for a Roth IRA contribution (because of income limitations), the investment income generated by the contribution becomes tax-deferred, possibly for years, and the contribution builds cost basis in your IRA, making future distributions a little less taxing.

If you make a nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA and shortly after that convert that contribution to a Roth IRA, you can get around the income limitation of making Roth contributions. This is sometimes called a backdoor Roth IRA. Remember, however, that you'll need to aggregate all traditional IRAs and SEP/SIMPLE IRAs you own — other than IRAs you've inherited — when you calculate the taxable portion of your conversion. If your traditional IRA balance before the non-deductible contribution is zero, then you’ll owe no tax on the conversion, and voila! You have just made a legal Roth IRA contribution.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

New Retirement Planning Options Starting in 2024

The SECURE 2.0 Act, passed in December 2022, made wide-ranging changes to U.S. tax laws related to retirement savings. While some provisions were effective in 2023, others did not take effect until 2024. Here is an overview of some important changes for this year:

Matching student loan payments

Employees who make student loan repayments may receive matching employer contributions to a workplace retirement plan as if the repayments were employee contributions to the plan. This applies to 401(k), 403(b), and government 457(b) plans and SIMPLE IRAs. Employers are not required to make matching contributions in any situation, but this provision allows them to offer student loan repayment matching as an additional benefit to help address the fact that people paying off student loans may struggle to save for retirement.

New early withdrawal exceptions

Withdrawals before age 59½ from tax-deferred accounts, such as IRAs and 401(k) plans, may be subject to a 10% early distribution penalty on top of ordinary income tax. There is a long list of exceptions to this penalty, including two new ones for 2024.

Emergency expenses — one penalty-free distribution of up to $1,000 is allowed in a calendar year for personal or family emergency expenses; no further emergency distributions are allowed during a three-year period unless funds are repaid or new contributions are made that are at least equal to the withdrawal.

Domestic abuse — a penalty-free withdrawal equal to the lesser of $10,000 (indexed for inflation) or 50% of the account value is allowed for an account holder who certifies that he or she has been the victim of domestic abuse during the preceding one-year period.

Emergency savings accounts

Employers can create an emergency savings account linked to a workplace retirement plan for non-highly compensated employees.  Employee contributions are after-tax and can be no more than 3% of salary, up to an account cap of $2,500  (or lower as set by the employer). Employers can match contributions up to the cap, but any matching funds go into the employee’s workplace retirement account.

Clarification for RMD ages

SECURE 2.0 raised the initial age for required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and most workplace plans from 72 to 73 beginning in 2023 and 75 beginning in 2033. However, the language of the law was confusing. Congress has clarified that age 73 initial RMDs apply to those born from 1951 to 1959, and age 75 applies to those born in 1960 or later. This clarification will be made official in a law correcting a number of technical errors, expected to be passed in early 2024.

No more RMDs from Roth workplace accounts

Under previous law, RMDs did not apply to original owners of Roth IRAs, but they were required from designated Roth accounts in workplace retirement plans. This requirement will be eliminated beginning in 2024.

Transfers from a 529 college savings account to a Roth IRA

Beneficiaries of 529 college savings accounts are sometimes “stuck” with excess funds they did not use for qualified education expenses. Beginning in 2024, a beneficiary can execute a direct trustee-to-trustee transfer from any 529 account in the beneficiary’s name to a Roth IRA, up to a lifetime limit of $35,000. The 529 account must have been open for more than 15 years. These transfers are subject to Roth IRA annual contribution limits, requiring multiple transfers to use the $35,000 limit. The IRS is still working on specific guidance on this law change, so it might pay to wait a few months before making this type of transfer.

Increased limits for SIMPLE plans

Employers with SIMPLE IRA or SIMPLE 401(k) plans can now make additional nonelective contributions up to the lesser of $5,000 or 10% of an employee’s compensation, provided the contributions are made to each eligible employee in a uniform manner. The limits for elective deferrals and catch-up contributions, which are $16,000 and $3,500, respectively, in 2024, may be increased by an additional 10% for a plan offered by an employer with no more than 25 employees. An employer with 26 to 100 employees may allow higher limits if it provides either a 4% match or a 3% nonelective contribution.

Inflation indexing for QCDs

Qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) allow a taxpayer who is age 70½ or older to distribute up to $100,000 annually from a traditional IRA to a qualified public charity. Such a distribution is not taxable and can be used in lieu of all or part of an RMD. Beginning in 2024, the QCD amount is indexed for inflation, and the 2024 limit is $105,000.

SECURE 2.0 created an opportunity (effective 2023) to use up to $50,000 of one year’s QCD (i.e., one time only) to fund a charitable gift annuity or charitable remainder trust. This amount is also indexed to inflation beginning in 2024, and the limit is $53,000.

Catch-up contributions: indexing, delay, and correction

Beginning in 2024, the limit for catch-up contributions to an IRA for people ages 50 and older will be indexed to inflation, which could provide additional saving opportunities in future years. However, the limit did not change for 2024 and remains $1,000. (The catch-up contribution limit for 401(k)s and similar employer plans was already indexed and is $7,500 in 2024.)

The SECURE 2.0 Act includes a provision — originally effective in 2024 — requiring that catch-up contributions to workplace plans for employees earning more than $145,000 annually be made on a Roth basis. In August 2023, the IRS announced a two-year “administrative transition period” that effectively delays this provision until 2026. In the same announcement, the IRS affirmed that catch-up contributions, in general, would be allowed in 2024, despite a change related to this provision that could be interpreted to disallow such contributions. The error will be corrected in the 2024 technical legislation.

Hopefully, one or more of the above new options will help with your retirement planning. By necessity, many of the details of the changes above are abbreviated, so be sure to check with your financial or tax advisor to ensure that they’re appropriate for your tax situation, both currently and in the future.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Last Minute Year-End Tax Planning for 2023

The window of opportunity for many year-end tax-saving moves closes on December 31, so it's important to evaluate your tax situation now, while there's still time to affect your bottom line for the 2023 tax year.

Timing is Everything

Consider any opportunities you may have to defer income to 2024. Doing so may allow you to postpone paying tax on the income until next year. If there's a chance that you'll be in a lower income tax bracket next year, deferring income could mean paying less tax on the income as well.

Some examples:

·       Check with your employer to see if there is an opportunity to defer year-end bonuses.

·       Defer the sale of capital gain property (or take installment payments rather than a lump-sum payment)

·       Postpone receipt of distributions (other than required minimum distributions) from retirement accounts.

Similarly, consider ways to accelerate deductions into 2023. If you itemize deductions, you might accelerate some deductible expenses by making payments before year-end.

Some examples:

·       Consider paying medical expenses or bills in December rather than January, if doing so will allow you to qualify for the medical expense deduction (must be more than 7.5% of your income).

·       Prepay deductible interest by accelerating your January mortgage payment into December.

·       Make January alimony payments in December

·       Make next year's charitable contributions in December

·       Pay state and local taxes (income taxes, property taxes, use taxes, etc.) if you’re below the $10,000 maximum allowed itemized deduction for state and local taxes

·       Purchase that piece of equipment or vehicle needed in your business and place it in service by year-end

Sometimes, however, it may make sense to take the opposite approach — accelerating income into 2023 and postponing deductible expenses to 2024. That might be the case, for example, if you can project that you'll be in a higher tax bracket in 2024; paying taxes this year instead of next might be outweighed by the fact that the income would be taxed at a higher rate next year.

Factor in the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)

Although the number of taxpayers subject to the AMT is much lower than in prior years, make sure that you factor in the alternative minimum tax when deciding to accelerate any deductions. If you're subject to the AMT, traditional year-end maneuvers, like deferring income and accelerating deductions, can have a potentially negative effect. That's because the AMT — essentially a separate, parallel income tax with its own rates and rules — effectively disallows several itemized deductions. For example, if you're subject to the AMT in 2023, prepaying 2024 state and local taxes won't help your 2023 tax situation but could potentially hurt your 2024 bottom line.

Special Concerns for Higher-Income Individuals

The top marginal tax rate (37%) applies if your taxable income exceeds $578,125 in 2023 ($692,750 if married filing jointly, $346,875 if married filing separately, $578,100 if head of household). Your long-term capital gains and qualifying dividends could be taxed at a maximum 20% tax rate if your taxable income exceeds $492,300 in 2023 ($553,850 if married filing jointly, $276,900 if married filing separately, $523,050 if head of household).

Additionally, a 3.8% net investment income tax (unearned income Medicare contribution tax) may apply to some or all of your net investment income if your modified AGI exceeds $200,000 ($250,000 if married filing jointly, $125,000 if married filing separately).

High-income individuals are subject to an additional 0.9% Medicare (hospital insurance) payroll tax on wages exceeding $200,000 ($250,000 if married filing jointly or $125,000 if married filing separately).

Charitable Contribution Planning

If you are planning to donate to a charity, it’s likely better to make your contribution before the end of the year to potentially save on taxes. There are many tax planning strategies surrounding charitable giving:

·       Consider donating appreciated property (such as securities, real estate, or artwork) that has been held for more than one year, rather than cash. Note that an appraisal may be needed for certain properties. Not only do you get a deduction for the fair market value (FMV) of your appreciated stock, but you save on taxes by not recognizing the capital gains on the appreciation.

·       Opening and funding a donor-advised fund (DAF) is appealing to many as it allows for a fully tax-deductible gift in the current year and the ability to dole out those funds to charities over multiple years. Again, if you donate appreciated securities to a DAF, not only do you get a deduction for the FMV of your appreciated stock, but you save on taxes by not recognizing the capital gains on appreciation.

·       Qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) up to $100,000 are another option for certain older taxpayers (age 70-1/2 or older) who don’t typically itemize on their tax returns. If you don’t have a required minimum distribution (RMD) from your retirement accounts (see below), this will help reduce future RMDs and taxable income. If you do have an RMD requirement from your retirement accounts, this could be an even better strategy for you to reduce your current taxable income.

Note that it’s important to have adequate documentation of all claimed donations, including a letter from the charity for donations of $250 or more.

Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

Unfortunately, you cannot keep retirement funds in your account indefinitely. RMDs are the minimum amount you must annually withdraw from your retirement accounts once you reach a certain age (generally now age 73). Failure to do so can result in significant penalties (special rules apply if you're still working and participating in your employer's retirement plan). You must make the withdrawals by the date required — the end of the year for most individuals.

As described above, there are also opportunities to distribute retirement funds to a qualified charity to satisfy the RMD without incurring taxes. Missed RMDs are subject to steep excise tax penalties (25%), although recent rules greatly reduce the penalty (to 10%) if the missed RMD is taken within two years.

Digital Assets and Virtual Currency

Digital assets are defined under the U.S. income tax rules as any digital representation of value that may function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value. Digital assets may include virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ether, Stablecoins such as Tether and USD Coin (USDC), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The sale or exchange of virtual currencies, the use of such currencies to pay for goods or services, or holding such currencies as an investment, generally have tax impacts –– and the IRS continues to increase its scrutiny in this area. The trading and use of digital assets must be disclosed on your tax returns and, since they are considered property rather than investments, different tax rules apply to their sales and exchanges.

Energy tax credits

From electric vehicles to home car chargers to solar panels, “going green” continues to provide tax incentives. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included new and newly expanded tax credits for solar panels, electric vehicles (EV), and energy-efficient home improvements. The rules are complex but there is still time for these credits to be beneficial in the current and next year. The most notable change to the EV credits is the requirement that the vehicle has final assembly in North America. If you are planning an EV purchase, please ask the dealer whether the vehicle you’re eyeing is on the list of qualifying vehicles, which has changed significantly in the past years. See if they can advance the credit to you as an offset to the vehicle purchase price (you’ll have to sign a form to assign the credit to the dealer.)

Bump Up Withholding to Avoid 2024 Underpayment

If it looks as though you will owe federal income tax for the year, consider increasing your withholding on Form W-4 for 2024 with your employer (also consider doing the same on the appropriate state withholding forms). The biggest advantage in doing so is that withholding is considered as having been paid evenly throughout the year instead of when the dollars are taken from your paycheck. This strategy can be used instead of making quarterly estimated tax payments.

If you’re collecting social security, a pension, or taxable IRA distributions, update your Form W-4P with the appropriate payor to ensure you’ve paid in enough to avoid underpayment penalties.

Beneficial Ownership Interest (BOI) Reporting

The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) requires the disclosure of the beneficial ownership information of certain entities to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) starting in 2024. This is not a tax filing requirement, but an online report to be completed if applicable to FinCEN. There are severe penalties for businesses who willingly do not comply with the requirements. The details of this reporting requirement are still being written, so it’s best to get in touch with your business attorney to determine whether your corporation, partnership, or LLC must file this report.

Additional Tax and Financial Planning Considerations

We recommend you review your retirement plans at least annually. That includes making the most of tax-advantaged retirement saving options, such as traditional individual retirement accounts (IRAs), Roth IRAs, and company retirement plans. It’s also advisable to take advantage of health savings accounts (HSAs) that can help you reduce your taxes and save for medical-related expenses. Once you become eligible or sign up for Medicare, you are no longer entitled to make HSA contributions.

IRAs and Retirement Plans

Make sure you’re taking full advantage of tax-advantaged retirement savings vehicles. Traditional IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans such as 401(k) plans allow you to contribute funds on a deductible (if you qualify) or pre-tax basis, reducing your 2023 taxable income. Contributions to a Roth IRA (assuming you meet the income requirements) or a Roth 401(k) aren't deductible since they are made with post-tax dollars, so there's no tax benefit for 2023, but qualified Roth distributions are completely free from federal income tax, which can make these retirement savings vehicles appealing.

For 2023, you can contribute up to $22,500 to a 401(k) plan ($30,000 if you're age 50 or older) and up to $6,500 to a traditional IRA or Roth IRA ($7,500 if you're age 50 or older). The window to make 2023 contributions to an employer plan typically closes at the end of the year, while you generally have until the April tax return filing deadline (April 15, 2024) to make 2023 IRA contributions.

If you started a small business in 2023, talk to your financial or tax advisor about setting up a small business retirement plan before year-end. Most plans must be set up before year-end, but contributions may not be required every year, and they don’t have to be made until the due date of the return (plus extensions). Some small business retirement plans can be set up at tax return time (e.g., SEP-IRA), but they have less contribution flexibility and more stringent rules than other plans (e.g., a solo 401(k)).

Roth IRA Conversions

Year-end is a good time to evaluate whether it makes sense to convert a tax-deferred savings vehicle like a traditional IRA or a 401(k) account to a Roth account. When you convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, or a traditional 401(k) account to a Roth 401(k) account, the converted funds are generally subject to federal income tax in the year that you make the conversion (except to the extent that the funds represent nondeductible after-tax contributions).

If a Roth conversion does make sense, you'll want to give some thought to the timing of the conversion. For example, if you believe that you'll be in a better tax situation this year than next (e.g., you will pay tax on the converted funds at a lower rate this year), you might think about acting now rather than waiting. Whether a Roth conversion is appropriate for you depends on many factors, including your current and projected future income tax rates and whether you have the funds to pay the taxes outside of the IRA. Ask your financial or tax advisor whether a Roth Conversion is appropriate for this year or next.

Other Ideas

·       Life changes –– Any major changes in your life such as marriages or divorces, births or deaths in the family, job or employment changes, starting a business, and significant expenditures (real estate purchases, college tuition payments, etc.) can significantly impact the taxes you owe, so be sure to discuss them with your tax or financial advisor.

·       Capital gains/losses –– Consider tax benefits related to using capital losses to offset realized gains –– and move any gains to the lowest tax brackets, if possible. Also, consider selling portfolio investments that are underperforming before the end of the year. Net capital losses can offset up to $3,000 of the current year’s ordinary income. The unused excess net capital loss can be carried forward to use in subsequent years.

·       Estate and gift tax planning –– Make sure you’re appropriately planning for estate and gift tax purposes. There is an annual exclusion for gifts ($17,000 per donee in 2023, $34,000 for married couples) to help save on potential future estate taxes. If your estate/trust is worth over $5 million, it’s imperative to discuss your options with a dedicated estate planning attorney to review lifetime gift and generation-skipping transfer (GST) opportunities to use and plan additional exclusions and exemption amounts.

·       State and local taxes –– Remote working arrangements or moving your residency could potentially have state and local tax implications to consider. Be sure to discuss your working arrangements with your tax advisor.

·       Education planning –– Save for education with Section 529 education savings plans. There can be state income tax benefits to do so, and there have been changes in the way these funds can be used for private K-12 school expenses, paying down some student loans, or contributing leftover funds to Roth IRAs.

·       Updates to financial records –– Determine whether any updates are needed to your insurance policies or beneficiary designations. This should be checked at least once a year, and year-end is a good time to do so.

·       Estimated tax payments –– With underpayment interest rates being on the rise (currently at 8% for federal), you must review withholding and estimated tax payments and assess any requirements for any additional payments. The 4^th quarter 2023 estimated income tax payment is due by January 16, 2024.

Hopefully one or more of the above tips helps you save a few dollars on your tax bill. By necessity, many of the tips are abbreviated, so be sure to check with your financial or tax advisor to ensure that they’re appropriate for your tax situation, both currently and in the future.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Working while Collecting Social Security Benefits Increases Lifetime Benefits

The rules governing working while collecting social security benefits are complicated and voluminous. Many people think they can’t work once they start collecting social security or they must return all benefits received. That’s simply not the case.

In some cases, you can earn unlimited income from work and keep 100% of your social security benefits. In other cases, you may have to re-pay some or all your social security benefits if you earn too much money.

In short, anyone can get Social Security retirement or survivors benefits and work at the same time. But, if you’re younger than full retirement age (see below), and earn more than certain amounts, your benefits will be reduced.

The amount that your benefits are reduced, however, isn’t truly lost. Your benefit will increase at your full retirement age to account for benefits withheld due to earlier earnings. Note that spouses and survivors who receive benefits because they care for children who are minors or have disabilities, don’t receive increased benefits at full retirement age if benefits were withheld because of work.
 
NOTE: Different rules apply if you receive Social Security disability benefits or Supplemental Security Income payments. If so, then you must report all earnings to the Social Security Administration (SSA). Also, different rules apply if you work outside the United States.
 
How much can you earn and still get benefits?
If you were born after January 1, 1960, then your full retirement age for retirement insurance benefits is 67.

If you work, and are at full retirement age or older, you keep all your benefits, no matter how much money you earn.

If you’re younger than full retirement age, there is a limit to how much you can earn and still receive full Social Security benefits.

• If you’re younger than full retirement age during all of 2023, the SSA must deduct $1 from your benefits for each $2 you earn above $21,240.
• If you reach full retirement age in 2023, the SSA will deduct $1 from your benefits for each $3 you earn above $56,520 until the month you reach full retirement age.

The following two examples show how the rules might affect you:

Example #1: Let’s say that you file for Social Security benefits at age 62 in January 2023 and your payment will be $600 per month ($7,200 for the year). During 2023, you plan to work and earn $23,920 ($2,680 above the $21,240 limit). The SSA would withhold $1,340 of your Social Security benefits ($1 for every $2 you earn over the limit). To do this, SSA would withhold all monthly benefit payments from January 2023 through March 2023 ($1,800 total). Beginning in April 2023, you would receive your full $600 benefit and this amount would be paid to you each month for the remainder of the year. In 2024, SSA would pay you the additional $460 ($1,800 minus $1,340) over-withheld in March 2023.

Example #2: Let’s say you aren’t yet at full retirement age at the beginning of the year but reach it in November 2023. You expect to earn $57,000 in the 10 months from January through October. During this period, SSA would withhold $160 ($1 for every $3 you earn above the $56,520 limit). To do this, SSA would withhold the full benefit payment for January 2023 ($600), your first check of the year. Beginning in February 2023, you would receive your $600 benefit, and this amount would be paid to you each month for the remainder of the year. In 2024, SSA would pay you the additional $440 over-withheld in January 2023.

NOTE: If you receive survivors’ benefits, SSA uses your full retirement age for retirement benefits when applying the annual earnings test (AET) for retirement or survivors’ benefits. Although the full retirement age for survivors’ benefits may be earlier, for AET purposes, SSA uses your full retirement age for retirement benefits. This rule applies even if you are not entitled to your own retirement benefits.

What Income Counts and When is it Counted?
If you work for an employer, only your wages count toward Social Security’s earnings limits. If you’re self-employed, only your net earnings from self-employment count. For the earnings limits, SSA doesn’t count income such as other government benefits, investment earnings, interest, pensions, annuities, and capital gains. However, SSA does count an employee’s contribution to a pension or retirement plan (i.e., 401(k) or 403(b) plan) if the contribution amount is included in the employee’s gross wages.

If you earn salary or wages, income counts when it’s earned, not when it’s paid. If you have income that you earned in one year, but the payment was made in the following year, it should be counted as earnings for the year you earned it, not the year paid to you. Some examples include year-end earnings paid in January, accumulated sick pay, vacation pay, or bonuses.
 
If you’re self-employed, income counts when you receive it, not when you earn it. This is not the case if it’s paid in a year after you become entitled to social security benefits but earned before you became entitled to benefits.

Special Rule for the First Year You Retire
Sometimes people who retire in mid-year have already earned more than the annual earnings limit. That’s why there is a special rule that applies to earnings for one year-- usually the first year of retirement.
 
Under this rule, you can get a full Social Security check for any whole month you’re retired, regardless of your yearly earnings. In 2023, a person younger than full retirement age for the entire year is considered retired if monthly earnings are $1,770 or less (1/12^th of the annual earnings limit).

Example: Someone retires at age 62 on October 30, 2023 and has earned $45,000 through October. He/she takes a part-time job beginning in November earning $500 per month. Although their earnings for the year substantially exceed the 2023 annual limit ($21,240), they will receive a full Social Security payment for November and December. This is because their earnings in those months are $1,770 or less, the monthly limit for people younger than full retirement age. If they earn more than $1,770 in either November or December, they won’t receive a benefit for that month. Beginning in 2024, only the annual limit will apply.
 
If you’re self-employed, SSA considers how much work you do in your business to determine whether you’re retired. One way is by looking at the amount of time that you spend working. In general, if you work more than 45 hours a month in a self-employment venture, you’re not retired. If you work less than 15 hours a month, you’re considered retired. If you work between 15 and 45 hours a month, you won’t be considered retired if it’s in a job that requires a lot of skill, or you’re managing a sizable business.

Should You Report Changes in Your Earnings?
SSA adjusts the amount of your Social Security benefits in 2023 based on what you told them you would earn in 2023. If you think your earnings for 2023 will be different from what you originally told the SSA, let them know right away.

If other family members get benefits based on your work, your earnings from work you do after you start getting retirement benefits could reduce their benefits, too. If your spouse and children get benefits as family members, however, earnings from their own work affect only their own benefits.

Will You Receive Higher Monthly Benefits Later if Benefits are Withheld Because of Work?
Yes, if some of your retirement benefits are withheld because of your earnings, your monthly benefit will increase starting at your full retirement age. This is to consider those months in which benefits were withheld.

Example: Let’s say you claim retirement benefits upon turning 62 in 2023, and your payment is $910 per month. Subsequently, you return to work and have 12 months of benefits withheld.

In that case, SSA would recalculate your benefit at your full retirement age of 67 and pay you $975 per month (in today’s dollars). Or maybe you earn so much between the ages of 62 and 67 that all benefits in those years are withheld. In that case, SSA would pay you $1,300 a month starting at age 67.

Are There Other Ways That Work Can Increase Your Benefits?
Yes. Each year the SSA reviews the records for all Social Security recipients who work. If your latest year of earnings turns out to be one of your highest years, the SSA refigures your benefit and pays you any increase due. This is an automatic process, and benefits are paid in December of the following year. For example, in December 2023, you should get an increase for your 2022 earnings if those earnings raised your benefit. The increase would be retroactive to January 2023.

The number of possible work and social security benefit scenarios are many and varied. If your situation is unique or complicated, it may be worth a call to your local social security office to find out how the rules affect your situation.

The bottom line is that working while receiving social security benefits may temporarily reduce your benefits, but may, in fact, increase your overall lifetime benefits. If you plan to claim social security benefits before your full retirement age, you should talk to your financial advisor or contact us for help.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning or social security benefit matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source: SSA.gov, “How Work Affects Your Benefits”