Retirement Investors Get Another Boost from Washington

If the Inflation Reduction Act passed earlier this year wasn’t amusing enough for having the exact opposite effect, the latest bill will certainly cement Congress’ sense of humor when it comes to fighting inflation.

Amid the 1,650-page, $1.7 trillion omnibus spending legislation passed by Congress last week and signed by President Biden this week, were several provisions affecting work-sponsored retirement plans and, to a lesser degree, IRAs. Dubbed the “SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022” after the similarly sweeping “Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act” passed in 2019, the legislation is designed to improve the current and future state of retiree income in the United States.

"This important legislation will enhance the retirement security of tens of millions of American workers — and for many of them, give them the opportunity for the first time to begin saving," said Brian Graff, CEO of the American Retirement Association.

What Does the Legislation Do?

The following is a brief summary of some of the most notable initiatives. All provisions take effect in 2024 unless otherwise noted.

• A later age for required minimum distributions (RMDs). The 2019 SECURE Act raised the age at which retirement savers must begin taking distributions from their traditional IRAs and most work-based retirement savings plans to 72. SECURE 2.0 raises that age again to 73 beginning in 2023 and 75 in 2033.
• Reduction in the RMD excise tax. Current law requires those who fail to take their full RMD by the deadline, to pay a tax of 50% of the amount not taken. The new law reduces that tax amount to 25% in 2023; the tax is further reduced to 10% if account holders take the full required amount and report the tax by the end of the second year after it was due and before the IRS demands payment.
• No RMDs from Roth 401(k) accounts. Bringing Roth 401(k)s and similar employer plans in line with Roth IRAs, the legislation eliminates the requirement for savers to take minimum distributions from their work-based plan Roth accounts.
• Higher limits and looser restrictions on qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) from IRAs. QCDs are a great way to give your RMD (or more) to charity and thereby avoid taxes on the distribution. The amount currently eligible for a QCD from an IRA ($100,000) will be indexed for inflation. In addition, beginning in 2023, investors will be able to make a one-time charitable distribution of up to $50,000 from an IRA to a charitable remainder annuity trust, charitable remainder unitrust, or charitable gift annuity.1
• Higher catch-up contributions. Currently, taxpayers age 50 and older can make an additional “catch-up” contribution to their IRAs and 401(k)’s. The IRA catch-up contribution limit will now be indexed annually for inflation, similar to work-sponsored catch-up contributions. Also, starting in 2025, people age 60 to 63 will be able to contribute an additional minimum of $10,000 for 401(k) and similar plans (and at least $5,000 extra for SIMPLE plans) each year to their work-based retirement plans. Moreover, beginning in 2024, all catch-up contributions for those making more than $145,000 will be after-tax (Roth contributions).
• Roth matching contributions. The new law permits employer matches to be made to Roth accounts. Currently, employer matches must go into an employee's pre-tax account. This provision takes effect immediately; however, it may take some time for employers to amend their retirement plans to include this feature.
• Automatic enrollment and automatic saving increases. Beginning in 2025, the Act requires most new work-sponsored plans to automatically enroll employees with contribution levels between 3% and 10% of income, and it automatically increases their savings rates by 1% a year until they reach at least 10% (but not more than 15%) of income. Workers will be able to opt out of the programs.
• Emergency savings accounts. The legislation includes measures that permit employers to automatically enroll non-highly compensated workers into emergency savings accounts to set aside up to  $2,500 (or a lower amount that an employer stipulates) in a Roth-type account. Savings above this limit and any employer matching contributions would go into the traditional retirement account.
• Matching contributions for qualified student loan repayments. Employers may help workers repaying qualified student loans simultaneously save for retirement by investing matching contributions in a retirement account in the employee's name.
• 529 rollovers to Roth IRAs. People will be able to directly roll over up to a total of $35,000 from 529 plan accounts to Roth IRAs for the same beneficiary, provided the 529 accounts have been held for at least 15 years. Annually, the rollover amounts would be subject to Roth IRA contribution limits.2
• New exceptions to the 10% early-withdrawal penalty. Distributions from retirement savings accounts are generally subject to ordinary income tax. Moreover, distributions prior to age 59½ also may be subject to an early-withdrawal penalty of 10%, unless an exception applies. The law provides for several new exceptions to the early-withdrawal penalty, including an emergency personal expense, terminal illness, domestic abuse, to pay long-term care insurance premiums, and to recover from a federally declared disaster. Amounts, rules, and effective dates differ for each circumstance.
• Saver's match. Low- and moderate-income savers currently benefit from a tax credit of up to $1,000 ($2,000 for married couples filing jointly) for saving in a retirement account. Beginning in 2027, the credit is re-designated as a match that will generally be contributed directly into an individual's retirement account. In addition, the match is allowed even if taxpayers have no income tax obligation.
• More part-time employees can participate in retirement plans. The SECURE Act of 2019 required employers to allow workers who clocked at least 500 hours for three consecutive years to participate in a retirement savings plan. Beginning in 2025, the new law reduces the second component of that service requirement to just two years.
• Rules for lifetime income products in retirement plans. The Act directs the IRS to ease rules surrounding the offering of lifetime income products  within retirement plans. Moreover, the amount that plan participants can use to purchase qualified longevity annuity contracts will increase to $200,000. The current law caps that amount at 25% of the value of the retirement accounts or $145,000, whichever is less. These provisions take effect in 2023. Qualified annuities are typically purchased with pre-tax money, so withdrawals are fully taxable as ordinary income, and withdrawals prior to age 59½ may be subject to a 10% penalty tax.
• Retirement savings lost and found. The Act directs the Treasury to establish a searchable database for lost 401(k) plan accounts within two years after the date of the legislation's enactment.
• Military spouses. Small businesses that provide immediate enrollment and vesting to military spouses in an eligible retirement savings plan will qualify for new tax credits. This provision takes effect immediately.

These provisions represent just a sampling of the many changes that will be brought about by SECURE 2.0. We look forward to providing more details and in-depth analysis for both individuals and business owners in the months to come as more detailed information becomes available.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Bloomberg, Kiplinger,Fortune,Plan Sponsor magazine, National Association of Plan Advisors, and the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022

1 Bear in mind that not all charitable organizations are able to use all possible gifts. It is prudent to check first. The type of organization you select can also affect the tax benefits you receive.

2 As with other investments, there are generally fees and expenses associated with participation in a 529 savings plan. There is also the risk that the investments may lose money or not perform well enough to cover college costs as anticipated. Investment earnings accumulate on a tax-deferred basis, and withdrawals are tax-free as long as they are used for qualified education expenses. For withdrawals not used for qualified education expenses, earnings may be subject to taxation as ordinary income and possibly a 10% tax penalty. The tax implications of a 529 savings plan should be discussed with your legal and/or tax professionals because they can vary significantly from state to state. Also be aware that most states offer their own 529 plans, which may provide advantages and benefits exclusively for their residents and taxpayers. These other state benefits may include financial aid, scholarship funds, and protection from creditors. Before investing in a 529 savings plan, please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully. The official disclosure statements and applicable prospectuses - which contain this and other information about the investment options, underlying investments, and investment company - can be obtained by contacting your financial professional. You should read these materials carefully before investing.

Year-End Tax & Financial Planning Strategies for 2022

Dear Clients, Prospects and Friends:

As we wrap up 2022, it’s important to take a closer look at your tax and financial plans and review steps that can be taken to reduce taxes and help you save for your future. Though there has been a lot of political attention to tax law changes, inflation and environmental sustainability, political compromise has led to smaller impacts on individual taxes this year.

However, with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, there are new tax incentives for you to consider. There are also several tax provisions that have expired or will expire soon. We continue to closely monitor any potential extensions or changes in tax legislation and will update you accordingly.

Here's a look at some potential planning ideas for individuals to consider as we approach year-end:

Charitable Contribution Planning

If you’re planning to donate to a charity, it may be better to make your contribution before the end of the year to potentially save on taxes. There are many tax planning strategies related to charitable giving. For example, if you give gifts larger than $5,000 to a single organization, consider donating appreciated assets (such as collectibles, stock, exchange-traded funds, or mutual funds) that have been held for more than one year, rather than cash. That way, you’ll get a deduction for the full fair market value while side-stepping the capital gains taxes on the gain.

Because of the large standard deduction, most people no longer itemize deductions. But bunching deductions every other year might give you a higher itemized deduction than the standard deduction. One way to do this is by opening and funding a donor-advised fund (DAF). A DAF is appealing to many as it allows for a tax-deductible gift in the current year for your entire contribution. You can then grant those funds to your favorite charities over multiple years. If you give $2,000 or more a year to charity, talk to us about setting up a DAF.

Qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) are another option for certain taxpayers (age 70.5+) who don’t typically itemize on their tax returns. If you’re over age 70.5, you’re eligible to make charitable contributions directly from your IRA, which essentially makes charitable contributions deductible (for both federal and most state tax purposes) regardless of whether you itemize or not. In addition, it reduces future required minimum distributions, reducing overall taxable income in future years. QCDs keep income out of your tax return, making income-sensitive deductions (such as medical expenses) more viable, lowers the taxes on your social security income, and can lower your overall tax rate. They may also help keep your Medicare premiums low.

Last year, individuals who did not itemize their deductions could take a charitable contribution deduction of up to $300 ($600 for joint filers). However, this opportunity is no longer available for tax year 2022 (and future years).

Note that it’s important to have adequate documentation of all donations, including a letter or detailed receipt from the charity for donations of $250 or more. That letter/receipt must include your name, the taxpayer identification number of the institution, the amount, and a declaration of whether you received anything of value in exchange for the contribution.

Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

Tax rules don’t allow you to keep retirement funds in your accounts indefinitely. RMDs are the minimum amount you must annually withdraw from your retirement accounts once you reach a certain age (generally age 72). The RMD is calculated and based on the value of the account at the end of the prior tax year multiplied by a percentage from the IRS’ life expectancy tables. Failure to take your RMD can result in steep tax penalties--as much as 50% of the undistributed amount.

Retirement withdrawals obviously have tax impacts. As mentioned above, you can send retirement funds to a qualified charity to satisfy the RMD and potentially avoid taxes on those withdrawals.

Effective for the 2022 tax year, the IRS issued new life expectancy tables, resulting in lower annual RMD amounts. We can help you calculate any RMDs to take this year and plan for any tax exposure.

Digital Assets and Virtual Currency

Digital assets are defined under the U.S. income tax rules as “any digital representation of value that may function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and/or a store of value.” Digital assets may include virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, Stablecoins such as Tether and USD Coin (USDC), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

Unlike stocks or other investments, the IRS considers digital assets and virtual currencies as property, not as capital assets. As such, they are subject to a different set of rules than your typical investments. The sale or exchange of virtual currencies, the use of such currencies to pay for goods or services, or holding such currencies as an investment, generally have tax impacts –– and the IRS continues to increase its scrutiny in this area. We can help you understand any tax and investment consequences, which can be quite convoluted.

Energy Tax Credits

From electric vehicles to solar panels, “going green” continues to provide tax incentives. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included new and newly expanded tax credits for solar panels, electric vehicles, and energy-efficient home improvements. The rules are complex, and some elements of the law are not effective until 2023, so careful research and planning now can be beneficial. For example, previously ineligible electric vehicles are now eligible for credits, while other eligible vehicles are now ineligible for credits if they don’t contain the right proportion of parts and assembly in the United States.

Additional Tax and Financial Planning Considerations

We recommend that you review your retirement plans at least annually. That includes making the most of tax-advantaged retirement saving options, such as traditional individual retirement accounts (IRAs), Roth IRAs, and company retirement plans. It’s also advisable to take advantage of and maximize health savings accounts (HSAs), which can help you reduce your taxes and save for medical-related expenses.

Also, if you withdrew a Coronavirus distribution of up to $100,000 in 2020, you’ll need to report the final one-third amount on your 2022 return (unless you elected to report the entire distribution in 2020 or have re-contributed the funds to a retirement account). If you took a distribution, you could return all or part of the distribution to a retirement account within three years, which will be a date in 2023.

We can work with you to strategize a plan to help restore and build your retirement savings and determine whether you’re on target to reach your goals.

Here are a few more tax and financial planning items to consider and potentially discuss with us:

• Life changes –– Let us (or your current financial planner) know about any major changes in your life such as marriages or divorces, births or deaths in the family, job or employment changes, starting a business, and significant capital expenditures (such as real estate purchases, college tuition payments, etc.).
• Capital gains/losses –– Consider tax benefits related to harvesting capital losses to offset realized capital gains, if possible. Net capital losses (the result when capital losses exceed capital gains for the year) can offset up to $3,000 of the current year’s ordinary income (salary, self-employment income, interest, dividends, etc.) The unused excess net capital loss can be carried forward to be used in subsequent years. Consider harvesting some capital gains if you have a large capital loss from the current or prior years.
• Estate and gift tax planning –– There is an annual exclusion for gifts ($16,000 per donee in 2022, $32,000 for married couples) to help save on potential future estate taxes. While you can give much more without incurring any gift tax, any total annual gift to one individual larger than $16,000/$32,000 requires the filing of a gift tax return (with your form 1040). Note that the filing of a gift tax return is an obligation of the giver, not the recipient of the gift. The annual exclusion for 2023 gifts increases to $17,000/$34,000.
• State and local taxes –– Many people are now working from home (i.e., teleworking). Such remote working arrangements could potentially have state or local tax implications that should be considered. Working in one state for an employer located in another state may have unexpected state tax consequences. Also, ordering merchandise over the internet without paying sales or use tax might obligate you to remit a use tax to your home state.
• Education planning –– Consider a Section 529 education savings plan to help save for college or other K-12 education. While there is no federal income tax deduction for the contributions, there can be state income tax benefits (full or partial deductions) for doing so. Funds grow tax-free over many years and can be distributed tax-free when used for qualified education purposes. Lower-income taxpayers (less than $85,800 if single, head of household, or qualifying widow(er); $128,650 if married filing jointly) can redeem certain types of United States savings bonds tax-free when redeemed for college.
• Updates to financial records –– Tax time is the ideal time to review whether any updates are needed to your insurance policies or various beneficiary designations (life insurance, annuity, IRA, 401(k), etc.), especially if you've experienced any life changes in the past year.
• Last Call for 401(k), 403(b) & Other retirement Plan Contributions –– Once the calendar turns to 2023, it’s too late to maximize your employer plan contributions. It may not be too late to make sure that you’ve contributed the $20,500 maximum (plus $6,500 for those age 50 and older) to the plan. Review your last pay stub and check with your human resources or retirement plan website to see if you can still increase your current year contributions (don't forget to reset the percentage in early 2023). Remember, if you’ve worked for more than one employer in 2022, your total contributions via all employers cannot exceed the annual maximum, so you must monitor this. For IRAs, you have until April 18, 2023, to make up to a $6,000 contribution for 2022 (plus a $1,000 catch-up contribution for those age 50 and older)
• Roth IRA conversions –– Depending on your current year's highest tax rate, it may be prudent to consider converting part of your traditional IRA to a Roth IRA to lock in lower tax rates on some of your pre-tax retirement accounts. A conversion is nothing more than a taxable distribution from your IRA which is immediately deposited into your Roth IRA (while income taxes apply, no early withdrawal penalty applies). Roth conversions can help reduce future required minimum distributions and help keep future Medicare premiums lower.  The ideal time to consider Roth conversions is after you retire and before you start collecting your pension or social security checks (or whenever your income is much lower in any particular year).
• Estimated tax payments –– Review your year-to-date withholding and estimated tax payments to assess whether a 4^th quarter 2022 estimated tax payment might be required. An easy way to do this is to compare the total tax line on your 2021 income tax return with your total withholding and estimated payments (total payments) made to date. If your total payments made to date are at least 110% of your 2021 total tax, chances are, you are adequately paid in. While you may owe some tax with the filing of your 2022 return (due on April 18, 2023), you likely won’t owe any penalties for underpayment of estimated tax. Similarly, you may not need to pay 110% of last year's tax if your income has decreased substantially versus the prior year.

Year-End Planning Means Fewer Surprises

Whether it’s working toward a tax-optimized retirement or getting answers to your tax and financial planning questions, we’re here to help. As always, planning can help you anticipate and minimize your tax bill and position your family and you for greater financial success.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Some Cures For Your “Social InSecurity”

Some Cures For Your “Social InSecurity”

 One of the most common questions I hear from clients and prospects concerns the viability of the social security system and the likelihood it will be solvent enough to pay their benefits when they eventually reach retirement age. Their default instinct is to draw social security at the earliest possible age in case benefits were to run out prematurely. As you’ll read below, the Social Security program has many possible tweaks to help extend the payment of benefits for many decades to come and should help alleviate much of your Social InSecurity.

With approximately 94% of American workers covered by Social Security and 65 million people currently receiving benefits, keeping Social Security healthy is a major concern. According to the Social Security Administration, Social Security isn't in danger of going broke — it's financed primarily through payroll taxes — but its financial health is declining, and future benefits may eventually be reduced unless Congress acts.

Each year, the Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds release a detailed report to Congress that assesses the financial health and outlook of this program. The most recent report, released on June 2, 2022, shows that the effects of the pandemic were not as significant as projected in last year's report — a bit of good news this year.

Overall, the news is mixed for Social Security

The Social Security program consists of two programs, each with its own financial account (trust fund) that holds the payroll taxes that are collected to pay Social Security benefits. Retired workers, their families, and survivors of workers receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program; disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability     Insurance (DI) program. Other income (reimbursements from the General Fund of the U.S. Treasury and income tax revenue from benefit taxation) is also deposited in these accounts.

Money that's not needed in the current year to pay benefits and administrative costs is invested (by law) in special government-guaranteed Treasury bonds that earn interest. Over time, the Social Security Trust Funds have built up reserves that can be used to cover benefit obligations if payroll tax income is insufficient to pay full benefits, and these reserves are now being drawn down. Due to the aging population and other demographic factors, contributions from workers are no longer enough to fund current benefits.

In the latest report, the Trustees estimate that Social Security will have funds to pay full retirement and survivor benefits until 2034, one year later than in last year's report. At that point, reserves will be used up, and payroll tax revenue alone would be enough to pay only 77% of scheduled OASI benefits, declining to 72% through 2096, the end of the 75-year, long-range projection period.

The Disability Insurance Trust Fund is projected to be much healthier over the long term than last year's report predicted. The Trustees now estimate that it will be able to pay full benefits through the end of 2096. Last year's report projected that it would be able to pay scheduled benefits only until 2057. Applications for disability benefits have been declining substantially since 2010, and the number of workers receiving disability benefits has been falling since 2014, a trend that continues to affect the long-term outlook.

According to the Trustees report, the combined reserves (OASDI) will be able to pay scheduled benefits until 2035, one year later than in last year's report. After that, payroll tax revenue alone should be sufficient to pay 80% of scheduled benefits, declining to 74% by 2096. OASDI projections are hypothetical, because the OASI and DI Trust Funds are separate, and generally one program's taxes and     reserves cannot be used to fund the other program. However, this could be changed by Congress, and combining these trust funds in the report is a way to illustrate the financial outlook for Social Security as a whole.

All projections are based on current conditions and best estimates of likely future demographic, economic, and program-specific conditions, and the Trustees acknowledge that the course of the pandemic and future events may affect Social Security's financial status.

You can view a copy of the 2022 Trustees report at ssa.gov 

Many options for improving the health of Social Security

The last 10 Trustees Reports have projected that the combined OASDI reserves will become depleted between 2033 and 2035. The Trustees continue to urge Congress to address the financial challenges facing these programs so that solutions will be less drastic and may be implemented gradually, lessening the impact on the public. Many options have been proposed, including the ones listed below. Combining some of these may help soften the impact of any one solution:

• Raising the current Social Security payroll tax rate (currently 12.4%). Half is currently paid by the employee and half by the employer (self-employed individuals pay the full 12.4%). An immediate and permanent payroll tax increase of 3.24 percentage points to 15.64% would be needed to cover the long-range revenue shortfall.
• Raising or eliminating the ceiling on wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes ($147,000 in 2022).
• Raising the full retirement age beyond the currently scheduled age of 67 (for anyone born in 1960 or later).
• Raising the early retirement age beyond the current age of 62.
• Reducing future benefits. To address the long-term revenue shortfall, scheduled benefits would have to be immediately and permanently reduced by about 20.3% for all current and future beneficiaries, or by about 24.1% if reductions were applied only to those who initially become eligible for benefits in 2022 or later.
• Changing the benefit formula that is used to calculate benefits.
• Calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for benefits differently.

A comprehensive list of potential solutions can be found at ssa.gov.

As for when Congress will act to fix the system, in my opinion, it will probably be at the last minute when it becomes a crisis. But make no mistake-Congress will act, and any rumors or stories that social security won’t be around for the long term are simply false. Any member of Congress who votes against fixing and extending the system’s heath won’t be re-elected, and therefore you know they eventually will.

As for when you should consider drawing your own social security benefits, the unsatisfying answer is: it depends. Whether you should draw benefits at your early retirement age (usually 62), full retirement age (usually 67) or latest retirement age (70), depends on your financial situation, your spending needs, expected longevity and other factors. Only working with a financial planner or a comprehensive social security optimizer can help you figure out the optimal timeframe to claim social security. The right or wrong decision can increase or decrease your lifetime benefits by five or six zeroes---it’s worth the time and effort to do the analysis. We can, of course, help.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss your social security benefits, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

What's going on in the Markets June 20, 2022

With ten days to go in the 2^nd calendar quarter and the end of the first half of 2022, we’ve witnessed one of the worst yearly starts in the markets since 1962 with a decline of about 23% in the S&P 500 index. This makes this year the 3^rd worst start for the index in market history.  

The good news? Of the fourteen other worst starts to the year since 1931, ten of them went on to turn in positive returns for the rest of the year, although only five of those fourteen years turned things around and closed with positive returns for the entire year.

Mid-term election years (the 2^nd year of a president’s term) have historically been lackluster, but that doesn’t entirely explain why this year has been so awful. Of course, the same culprits outlined in my What’s Going on in the Markets May 8, 2022 newsletter are still front and center today: 1. The war in the Ukraine; 2. Rising inflation; 3. Higher interest rates. A resolution in any of these three culprits could send the markets on a big trek higher.

To be fair, the markets were rife with speculation in all manners of stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), initial public offerings, crypto-currencies, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and other insane valuations of art, homes, antiques, etc. Most of this rampant speculation was fueled by the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed in the markets by the Federal Reserve and Federal Government to combat a potential economic depression caused by COVID-19. As happens most often, a pendulum that swings too far in one direction must swing too far in the other direction to correct the excess. That’s the nature of cycles-both economic and markets.

From the pandemic low in March 2020 to the high in January 2022, the S&P 500 index more than doubled (+108%), so a market that moves that far in less than two years would historically be expected to give back (retrace) some of those gains at some point. To most students of long-term markets, giving back 50% or more of those gains would not be unusual at all before the uptrend might resume. At a closing level of about 3,678 as of last Friday, that would take the S&P 500 index to around 3,500, about 5% lower than Friday’s close. Nothing says it must stop there, but that level historically would be expected to generate at least a decent bounce or short-term rally.

Adding insult to injury, this has also been one of the worst starts in over 40 years in the bond markets. Long adding ballast to portfolios and a relative haven from the stock market storms, bonds on average are down over 12% year-to-date, with long term treasuries down over 24%. Even 1–3 year treasury bills are down about 3.7%, making even the safest and shortest of duration government bonds not immune from the carnage. Of course, when bond prices decline, their yields increase, so they become more attractive for new investments.

The perfect storm of a bond and stock market decline means that there have been few places to hide, other than energy and commodity stocks. Of course, energy and commodity stock outperformance mean higher prices for goods, which is at the heart of the inflation problem we now have.

Inflation Marches Higher

When so much stimulus enters the economy and markets in a short time, inflation inevitably rears its ugly head. Think of fiscal and monetary stimulus as money printing, and you can quickly understand how adding so many dollars to the money supply would tend to de-value those dollars. Indeed, when the inflation numbers were released for April and May (8.6% and 8.4% consumer price index respectively), they were higher than expected.  Relief in the supply chain logjam was not enough to offset the increased cost of labor, energy, and commodities (mostly raw materials and foodstuff).

Obviously, inflation at this level cannot be sustained longer term and needs to be tamed before it crashes the economy as consumers begin having trouble affording necessities, let alone discretionary purchases. It’s one of the two mandates of the Federal Reserve (The Fed): to reel in inflation using the tools at their disposal to prevent an economic crash.

Interest Rate Hikes

The dual mandates of The Fed are to:

1. Maintain price stability (by keeping inflation to 2% or less) and,

2. Ensure maximum employment.

With unemployment at historic lows, maintaining price stability is currently job #1 for The Fed.

When the pandemic hit, you may recall that The Fed immediately reduced short-term interest rates from 2.25% to 0% to counter the expected economic contraction effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also launched one of the biggest asset purchase plans (bond buying) in history as an emergency measure to ensure enough liquidity in the financial system to keep the economy and commerce from seizing up. The Fed kept these asset purchases up through March of this year (far longer than necessary in my opinion), thereby flooding the markets with stimulus.

Beginning in April, The Fed raised short term interest rates by 0.25% for the first time and announced that the bonds bought over the past several years would be sold off over time. Of course, if injecting the markets with all that stimulus and maintaining low interest rates props the markets up, withdrawing that liquidity and raising interest rates should have the exact opposite effect--and of course it has.

The Fed followed up with a 0.5% and 0.75% short term interest rate hike in May and June respectively, bringing the short-term rate to around 1.5%. During the June meeting, The Fed telegraphed that a further 0.5% or 0.75% interest rate hike could be forthcoming in July (and future months) if inflation doesn’t ease in the coming month. Of course, with inflation running over 8%, The Fed, with short term interest rates around 1.5%, is still woefully behind the curve. Many pundits and critics want them to move much faster to tame inflation.

Low interest rates (near 0% for over two years) represent “cheap money” to individuals and companies, encouraging investment, spending, borrowing, and of course speculation. All of that tends to make for an overheated economy, pushing prices higher. Raising interest rates tends to curb the demand for capital and overall spending, thereby reducing pressure on the supply of goods and services, and in turn, reducing pressure on prices. But by doing so, The Fed risks pushing the economy into a recession.

Recession or Soft Landing

The Fed has acknowledged that lifting interest rates may curb consumer and corporate demand enough to push the economy into a recession. Fact is, it’s possible that we’re already in a recession but don’t know it yet.

The textbook definition of a recession is at least “two consecutive calendar quarters of negative gross domestic product or GDP.” For the first quarter of 2022, the economy did register a negative GDP of 1.3%, and the second quarter could potentially register a similar small negative GDP. As of Friday June 16, the Atlanta Federal Reserve lowered GDP estimates for the 2^nd quarter to about 0%, which means that it could easily turn negative by the end of the quarter, putting us into a an official recession.

Regardless of how the 2^nd quarter plays out, textbook recession or not, I would expect that any recession would be another mild or short one (like the short-lived COVID recession of 2020) as we try and squeeze out much of the excesses brought on by the post-COVID over-stimulus. While you’re likely to be bombarded (and scared witless) by the news media about how the economy has officially fallen into a recession, it remains to be seen how long and how bad it might get. With housing and employment still strong, and corporate earnings holding steady, (albeit weakening somewhat with everything else), the recession should prove to be mild or moderate in my opinion.

What To Do Now

The market is currently in what I would characterize as “no-man’s land”. That’s to say that it’s too late to sell and yet probably too early to buy. As mentioned above, we have the potential to visit the 50% retracement level of S&P 500 at 3,500, 5% lower from here. But the selling was so intense last week, that could be considered somewhat exhaustive, or capitulatory as some refer to it in the business. While bad things tend to get worse in the markets before they get better, the proverbial rubber band to the downside is firmly stretched, meaning that a strong snapback rally could start as early as tomorrow, if not later this week or next.

In a mid-term election year, we tend to see a summer rally from late June into mid-July, with weakness or sideways movement persisting throughout the August-October period. But post-election, a year-end relief rally into the spring tends to be strong. So unfortunately, any relief rally in June/July may prove fleeting, with much better probabilities for a long-term rally coming in the 4^th quarter. Of course, this is all crystal ball prognostication, relying on history to project future returns. This should not be relied on to make investment/portfolio decisions.

So, what about nibbling at stocks and stock funds (and even bonds) with the market down so much? While dollar cost averaging over time has a successful track record, the key is your own personal discipline to continue investing at regular intervals and knowing that it may take months or years to become profitable on new buys, especially if this market doesn’t find a bottom until late this year or next.

Those who bought in mid-2008 thinking that the bottom was in found out that they had to endure another 30% drawdown until the ultimate bottom in March 2009. In the end, this all turned out great for long term holders, albeit with a little pain.

If you are confident that you won’t sell everything if the market continues lower and reach your own capitulation point, there’s nothing wrong with nibbling on names that have come down to attractive levels. Personally, I prefer to see signs of strong demand returning from large institutions, something that is still absent at these levels. The path of least resistance, as of today, is unfortunately lower, but that could easily change in a day or two of strong buying.

For our client portfolios, we came into the 2^nd quarter with one of our lowest allocations to stocks and bonds in years. We continue to be hedged with cash, stock options and bear market funds, and we continue to harvest profits and raise cash. If we see further weakness and no return of demand from institutions, we will further increase our hedges and continue to sell underperforming positions into any rallies that “peter out” in short order.

If you find yourself stuck in positions that no longer meet your initial criteria for buying them in the first place, consider using upcoming rallies to sell them (even at a loss) and upgrade your portfolio with better performing companies at the right time. Instead of big bites, take little nibbles, and keep in mind that bear market rallies are very good at sucking in investors and convincing them that the selloff is over, only to roll over and make lower lows. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

No one knows how deep the market will pull back. Have we seen the lows, or do we have some ways to go? I personally think we may have seen the worst of it, but that’s just a gut feeling. That doesn’t mean that I believe that the sell-off is over. Similarly, we have no idea if the next rally will mark the bottom of this pullback or just be another “suckers’ rally”.

In the end, these somewhat painful periods always end, paving the way for a new long-term uptrend (a.k.a., a bull market). As I always echo, investing in the stock market is great for long term returns, as long as you don’t get scared out of it at the wrong time. After all, enduring volatility is the price we pay for outsized long-term returns. Be patient and stay small with buys to keep your risk in line with your own tolerance.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

What’s Going on in the Markets May 8, 2022

It was another down week in the stock markets, which, under the surface, was worse than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indexes being down only about 0.25% might have suggested. Volatility continues to rule the markets daily as investors and traders try to discount the effects of inflation, interest rate hikes, a raging war, and the possibility of a recession in the coming months.

Speaking of interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve (The Fed) met last week and raised short-term interest rates by 0.5% (bringing them to 0.75%-1.00%). The Fed signaled that more 0.5% interest hikes were likely coming and also mentioned that single day 0.75% hikes were not being considered. Although the markets breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday and rallied about 3% from the day’s lows, that rally was short-lived as the markets gave it all back and more on Thursday and Friday.

As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 index is down about 13.5%, while the harder-hit tech-heavy NASDAQ is down about 22.3% year-to-date. Those figures, however, don't reflect the level of carnage under the surface, where some growth stocks are down as much as 80% from their prior peaks. Strength in the markets is found in energy stocks (where oil prices continue to float above $100 a barrel) and defensive stocks (consumer staples, some healthcare, and utilities).

Even bonds, long known to provide ballast to stocks, are down about 11% year-to-date and have not held up their end of the bargain. Bonds are having one of their worst starts to the year since the 1970s. Even if you're hiding out in 1–3 year short-term treasury bonds, you're still down about 3.1% since the beginning of the year. The typical 60/40 (stock/bond) portfolio has provided no shelter from the recent market storm.

When you see both stocks and bonds down in tandem, the usual culprit is an inflationary environment. Last month's government report on inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed inflation rose 1.2% in March, translating to an annualized rate of 8.5%. This coming Wednesday, we get the read on April inflation, which should see inflation easing from March levels (based on reports of declining used car prices, lower demand for homes, and supply chain improvements).

The Fed has two core mandates as its mission: 1) keep unemployment low and 2) maintain price stability.

At this point, The Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates to try and tame the inflation beast. Unfortunately, raising short-term interest rates has the side effect of slowing economic activity because capital becomes more expensive for both consumers and companies, thereby forcing a slowdown of discretionary purchases and capital improvements (and stock buybacks, which buoy the markets). We are already seeing a slight easing in housing market pressures as 30-year mortgage rates tick above 5%.

Inflation at the current rates is simply not tenable, and therefore The Fed must do what it can to keep the prices of goods and services at prices that consumers can afford.

Further taming of the inflation beast with short-term interest rate hikes can sometimes cause such a slowdown in the economy that we see negative growth in the gross domestic product (GDP), as was reported in the 1^st quarter of 2022 when GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% (which is an annualized rate of 1.4%).

As of the end of the 1^st quarter, we had only experienced a single 0.25% short-term interest rate hike by The Fed, so that was not the proximate cause of the decline in GDP. More likely, the side effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, a complete lockdown in parts of China because of COVID resurgence, and inflation worries all weighed on the economy in an otherwise environment of robust consumer demand.

The definition of an economic recession is two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, so 2^nd quarter 2022 GDP is pivotal in determining whether we’re already in an economic recession. Perhaps that’s what has the markets worried.

Also on the economic front, both the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index and the ISM Services Index remained at high levels last month; however, there is some weakness developing under the surface. The ISM Manufacturing Index has fallen in five of the last six months, while new orders for the services sector fell to a 14-month low. At the same time, prices have remained stubbornly high in both indexes, which raises the possibility of economic stagflation (inflation + slowing economy) in the coming months.

What About Now?

While the markets continue their correction (pullback), we have continued to get more defensive in our client portfolios by selling more (underperforming) positions, adding to our hedges, and tightening up our option selling. Unfortunately, in a rising volatility environment, the fruits of our option selling labor don’t begin to show up in client portfolio results until after the volatility subsides, or those sold options expire. That doesn’t mean we won’t continue to allocate to those strategies to reduce portfolio risk, but in the short term, they may not display the intended positive portfolio effects.

While I don’t have a working crystal ball, I’ve seen little evidence that the volatility is about to subside anytime soon. Though the markets are oversold (stretched to the downside) on a short-term basis, we have not seen any bounces that have lasted longer than a day or two, at least not since late March. We are certainly overdue for a robust bounce that lasts at least a few weeks or months, but I don’t see any evidence to believe that we’re at a durable long-term bottom yet.

Therefore, this back-and-forth choppy action may continue until after the mid-term elections, as is typical for this part of the presidential cycle. We may also need to shake out more weak hands in the short term and get to some level of capitulation or panic in order to get a sustainable rally.

One contrary indicator, investor sentiment about the markets, is at some of the lowest levels--some levels on par with sentiment during the great financial crisis in 2007-2009 and the COVID crisis, hinting that investors are not very exuberant about investing in the markets. Another contrary indicator, mutual fund flows, shows that investors of late are cashing out of stocks in recent weeks, which means at some point, many will be forced to buy back their stocks in the near future.

If you’re not a client of ours, I hope you have taken some action with your portfolio during the prior market rallies, to reduce your overall risk and exposure to the stock market. Whether selling some underperforming positions, buying some bear market funds, or just hedging your portfolio in one way or another, figure out a way to reduce your overall portfolio risk. Don’t wait until the market is down a lot before taking some action. You want to have some cash on hand to pick up some “bargains” once the market resumes its uptrend.

If you have not, or if you still feel overexposed, you should consider doing so during the next market rally to bring your portfolio more in line with your own personal risk tolerance. This is especially true if you find yourself worried about your investments more than usual these days. Remember, no one can control what the market does, but you and only you can control the risk you’re taking and the amount of the loss you wish to sustain. If you’re picking up anything on this downturn, keep it small and expect that you’ll have to wait some time to become profitable on these positions. Disclaimer: None of the foregoing should be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please consult with your own financial advisor or talk to us if you need help.

In a rising interest rate environment where inflation is not yet under control, and where The Fed is now a net seller of bond assets (instead of a buyer), stocks will have a hard time making it back to old highs, not to mention making new ones. While the 13-year-old bull market may not be finally dead, I don’t see this environment as friendly to investing as it has been in the recent past. Don’t assume that the “beach-ball” market that absorbed all manner of “meme stocks”, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), Ponzi stocks, a flood of IPOs, and additional stock offerings is going to come roaring back, because I don’t believe that it will anytime soon. Remember, if your favorite stock is down 50%, you need it to double just to get back to even. I don’t think you can count on that anytime soon either.

There’s a saying in the investing world that most have heard: “Don’t Fight The Fed.” That means when The Fed is accommodative with low-interest rates and is actively providing liquidity to the markets (as they mostly have for the past 13 years), you’re essentially investing with the wind at your back. In that environment, you want to be a net buyer, not a net seller of securities.

If you believe that saying is true during the accommodative periods, then trying to fight the Fed when they are withdrawing liquidity and raising interest rates and insisting that the market should go up in the face of those headwinds would not make much sense during the non-accommodative period we’re experiencing right now.  A time of Fed accommodation will return at some point but be patient and cautious with new investments until then.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.