What's Going on in the Markets for February 25, 2020

It wasn't a pretty day for the stock market fans on Monday with one of the worst down days in over two years. Does that mean the market is doomed and that we've finally topped? Read on for some encouraging news on post-smack down days like Monday, with some help from my friend and fellow market writer Jon D. Markman.

Investors seemed to panic on Monday over a climb in corona virus infections outside of the Chinese epicenter and also started to discount the possibility that the Democrats might nominate capitalism antagonist Bernie Sanders.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average started with a gap down and 500-point slide, made a couple of feeble rebound attempts, then closed on its low at -1,031 points with a 3.5% loss. The S&P 500 fell 3.35%, the NASDAQ 100 fell 3.9% and the small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 2.9%. This puts us about 5% below all-time highs as measured by the S&P 500 index, a normal and frequent pull-back level.

It was a bad day for sure, but in no way historic. Slams of 3.5% occur about twice a year on average, with something like 100 instances since 1928. The Monday slide was just the 48^th biggest one day drop for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) since 1993. It was the worst Monday decline since way back on Feb. 5, 2018, when the SPY sank 4.18% for a reason nobody can quite remember.

Sure it’s sad that the corona virus has spread to Italy and other countries, but overseas events ranging from assassinations and full-blown wars to economic hardship and the ebola virus just don’t move the dial for U.S. investors, whose attitude is pretty much, “Sorry not sorry.”

This is a good time to remind you that the only reason markets care about the dreaded virus is that it could put a kink in global supply chains that reduce public companies’ recent guidance on future revenues and margins (i.e., overall corporate profits). So it’s really another recession scare, not a public health scare.

Investors are susceptible to the scare because global economic growth is already slow, with the latest annualized reading on eurozone GDP at just 1.4% and the U.S. not much better at 2.3%. That’s barely above stall speed, so it wouldn’t take much to knock the spinning top on its side. Nick Colas of DataTrek Research notes: “The combination of structurally low inflation, aging populations, and central bank balance sheet expansion has pulled long term interest rates lower, persistently signaling a brewing recessionary storm to market participants.”

As a result, investors ditched oil and gas assets in the wake of reports that the corona virus continues to infect more people worldwide. Iran, Italy and South Korea reported sharp increases in infections, according to Reuters. Italy now has the world's third-largest concentration of corona virus cases and the economy is "vulnerable to disruption from the corona virus, being at serious risk of slipping into recession this quarter," said analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets in a note Monday. I believe that a lot more evidence is needed to make the conclusion that we're at risk of a near-term recession.

Besides, the market has gone up pretty much uninterrupted since the beginning of October 2018 and was very much overdue for a rest. Monday's performance was a mere flesh wound to the charging bull (market).

The good news is that Bespoke (a market quantitative analysis firm) reports that 2%-plus drops on Mondays have historically been bought with a vengeance in the near term. Since March 2009, there have been 18 prior 2%+ drops on Mondays, and SPY (the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index) has seen an average gain of 1.02% on the next day – which is how "Turnaround Tuesday" got its name.

Even more impressive, over the next week, SPY has averaged a huge gain of 3.16% with positive returns 17 out of 18 times. And over the next month, SPY has averaged a gain of 6.08% with positive returns 17 of 18 times as well. Anything can happen, of course--this is the stock market we're talking about here.

The analysts also studied big declines on each day of the week. Turns out that in the month after 2%+ drops on Mondays, SPY has averaged a huge gain of 4.5%.

No guarantees, but investors tend to buy the trip when big stumbles start a week. Sure, it might be short-term, but the pullback so far merely takes back all of the gains we accumulated in February 2020, so we're still slightly up on the year as measured by the S&P 500 index. Can it get worse? Of course, it can, but we need more evidence that the long term uptrend is in jeopardy.

Those that haven't yet hedged their portfolios during this entire bull market run should consider trimming positions or reduce risk in their portfolios on any bounce. It never hurts to take some money off the table, as no one knows if we've topped or we're on our ways to make new all-time highs again. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities-you should check with your advisor for the best approach that fits your goals, your risk tolerance and time-frame. For our client portfolios, we've done just that, and will do more of that should the pull-back deepen.

I think we'll get a quick bounce back, and then the market tends to go back and test the lows after a few days. If that low holds, then that could signal that this short-term pullback is over. If it doesn't, then more corrective work is needed to wring out some short-term excesses that are in the market.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

A Last-Minute 2019 Holiday Gift from Congress

Leave it to Congress to pass a last-minute tax bill to cap off 2019 and send CPAs and estate planning attorneys scrambling. They call it the "Further Consolidated Appropriations Act" (FCAA). I call it the "CPA and Attorney Employment Security Bill."

As a year-end holiday gift, Congress included a number of individual and business-friendly tax provisions in its year-end spending package that was signed into law by President Trump on December 20, 2019. The FCAA, (oddly considered a 2020 Act) brought back to life many deductions and credits that had expired at the end of 2017, as well as a few others that had either expired at the end of 2018 or were scheduled to expire at the end of 2019. In addition, new disaster-related tax provisions have been added and substantial changes were made to retirement-related tax provisions. Some of the funding for these changes will come from increases made to various penalty provisions - notably increases in the penalties for failing to timely file a tax return or timely pay the tax due.

To the extent that you could have benefited from any of the resurrected 2017 tax provisions on your 2018 tax return, we should file an amended return to claim any refunds you may be due. The 2020 Act changes may also affect your 2019 tax liability.

Some of the retirement-related (and quite significant) provisions which may be of interest to you include the following:

Repeal of Maximum Age for Traditional IRA Contributions

The prohibition on contributions to a traditional IRA by an individual who has attained age 70½ has been repealed.

Increase in Age for Required Beginning Date for Mandatory Distributions

The required beginning date for required minimum distributions has been increased to 72 years old from 70 ½ years old. The former rules continue to apply to employees and IRA owners who attain age 70½ prior to January 1, 2020. The new provision is effective for distributions required to be made after December 31, 2019, with respect to individuals who attain age 70½ after December 31, 2019.

Inherited IRA's Must Be Distributed within 10 Years

A stretch IRA was an estate planning strategy that extended the tax-deferred status of an inherited IRA when it is passed to a non-spouse beneficiary. Theoretically, an IRA could be passed on from generation to generation while beneficiaries enjoyed tax-deferred and/or tax-free growth. The passage of this Act now shortens that period considerably.

Under the new law, most beneficiaries will have to withdraw all the distributions from their inherited account and pay taxes on it within 10 years. Exceptions are made for spouses, your minor children and the chronically ill or disabled.

For those who inherit an IRA after January 1, 2020, the stretch IRA is no longer available. For those who inherited an IRA before January 1, 2020, you can continue to defer your tax liability as usual.

If you have an estate plan that includes a pass-through trust as a beneficiary, you will need to set up an appointment with your estate planning attorney to avoid a potential tax "disaster" for trust beneficiaries at the conclusion of the 10th year. I will have more about this in a separate post soon. If you have minor children (or grandchildren) and don't have a trust, you will want to talk to an estate planning attorney as well.

Penalty-Free Withdrawals from Retirement Plans for Individuals in Case of Birth of Child or Adoption

A new exception to the 10-percent early withdrawal tax applies in the case of a qualified birth or adoption distribution of up to $5,000 from an applicable eligible retirement plan. A qualified birth or adoption distribution is a distribution from an applicable eligible retirement plan to an individual if made during the one-year period beginning on the date on which a child of the individual is born or on which the legal adoption by the individual of an eligible adoptee is finalized. An eligible adoptee means any individual (other than a child of the taxpayer's spouse) who has not attained age 18 or is physically or mentally incapable of self-support.

Certain Taxable Non-Tuition Fellowship and Stipend Payments Treated As Compensation for IRA Purposes

For tax years after 2019, an amount includible in an individual's income and paid to the individual to aid the individual in the pursuit of graduate or postdoctoral study or research (such as a fellowship, stipend, or similar amount) is treated as compensation for purposes of IRA contributions.

The following is a recap of the provisions that have been extended and that may require the filing of an amended tax return for 2018.

Deduction for Qualified Tuition and Related Expenses

The deduction for qualified tuition and related expenses is now available for 2018, 2019, and 2020 and applies to qualified education expenses paid during the year for yourself, your spouse, or a dependent. The maximum deduction is $4,000 of expenses if your modified adjusted gross income does not exceed $65,000 ($130,000 in the case of a joint return). If your income is more than that, you can still deduct $2,000, as long as your adjusted gross income does not exceed $80,000 ($160,000 in the case of a joint return).

Expansion of Section 529 Plans

Several changes were made to the rules involving Section 529 plans - tax-advantaged savings plans designed to accumulate funds for future educational needs. First, tax-free distributions for higher education expenses now to apply to expenses for fees, books, supplies, and equipment required for the participation of a designated beneficiary in an apprenticeship program. The apprenticeship program must be registered and certified with the Secretary of Labor under Section 1 of the National Apprenticeship Act. Second, tax-free treatment applies to distributions of certain amounts used to make payments on the principal or interest of a qualified education loan. No individual may receive more than $10,000 of such distributions, in aggregate, over the course of the individual's lifetime. Third, a special rule allows tax-free distributions to a sibling of a designated beneficiary (i.e., a brother, sister, stepbrother, or stepsister). This rule allows a 529 account holder to make a student loan distribution to a sibling of the designated beneficiary without changing the designated beneficiary of the account.

Treatment of Mortgage Insurance Premiums as Qualified Residence Interest

For 2018, 2019, and 2020, you can treat amounts paid during the year for qualified mortgage insurance as qualified residence interest. The insurance must be in connection with acquisition debt for a qualified residence.

Exclusion from Gross Income of Discharge of Qualified Principal Residence Indebtedness

For 2018, 2019, and 2020, gross income does not include the discharge of indebtedness of a taxpayer if the debt discharged is qualified principal residence indebtedness which is discharged before January 1, 2021.

Elimination of Certain Kiddie Tax Provisions

If you have a child that was subject to the new kiddie tax rules that went into effect in 2018, those rules have now been repealed retroactive to the date they were adopted. As a result, the onerous trust and estate tax rates that applied to the child's unearned income in 2018 no longer apply. Similarly, the reduced AMT exemption amount for such children has been eliminated.

Nonbusiness Energy Property Credit

The nonbusiness energy property credit is extended to property placed in service in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The nonbusiness energy property credit is available for (1) 10 percent of the amounts paid or incurred for qualified energy efficiency improvements installed during the tax year, and (2) the amount of residential energy property expenditures paid or incurred during the tax year.

Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit

The credit for alternative fuel refueling property has been extended to property placed in service in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The credit is equal to 30 percent of the cost of any qualified alternative fuel vehicle refueling property placed in service by the taxpayer during the tax year.

Two-Wheeled Plug-In Electric Vehicle Credit

The credit available for the purchase of a qualified two-wheeled plug-in electric drive motor vehicle is extended to vehicles acquired in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Other changes made by the 2020 Act which may affect your 2019 tax return and future tax returns includes the following:

Reduction in Medical Expense Deduction Floor

The floor for deducting medical expenses for 2019 and 2020 has been reduced from 10 percent of adjusted gross income to 7.5 percent of adjusted gross income. In addition, there is no adjustment to the medical expense deduction when computing the alternative minimum tax for 2019 and 2020.

Disaster-related provisions in the 2020 Act include the following:

Exception to Penalty for Using Retirement Funds

An exception to the 10-percent early withdrawal tax on a retirement-related distribution applies in the case of "qualified disaster distributions" from a qualified retirement plan, a Code Sec. 403(b) plan, or an individual retirement account (IRA). In addition, income attributable to a qualified disaster distribution may be included in income ratably over three years, and the amount of a qualified disaster distribution may be recontributed to an eligible retirement plan within three years. A "qualified disaster distribution" is any distribution from an eligible retirement plan made on or after the first day of the incident period of a qualified disaster and before June 18, 2020, to an individual whose principal place of abode at any time during the incident period is located in the qualified disaster area and who has sustained an economic loss by reason of such disaster, regardless of whether a distribution otherwise would be permissible.

Special Rules for Qualified Disaster-Related Personal Casualty Losses

Under a new provision, in the case of a qualified disaster-related personal casualty loss which arose as the result of a net disaster loss, such loss is deductible without regard to whether aggregate net losses exceed 10 percent of your adjusted gross income. In order to be deductible, however, such losses must exceed $500 per casualty. Such losses may be claimed in addition to the standard deduction and may be claimed even if you are subject to the alternative minimum tax.

Special Rule for Determining Earned Income

If you qualify, you may elect to calculate your earned income tax credit and additional child tax credit for an applicable tax year using your earned income from the prior tax year. Qualified individuals are permitted to make the election with respect to an applicable tax year only if their earned income for such tax year is less than their earned income for the preceding tax year. You are a qualified individual if (1) at any time during the incident period of a qualified disaster, you had your principal residence in the applicable qualified disaster zone, or (2) during any portion of such incident period, you were not in the applicable qualified disaster zone but your principal residence was in the applicable qualified disaster area and you were displaced from such principal place of abode by reason of the qualified disaster.

Automatic Extension of Filing Deadlines in the Case of Federally Declared Disasters

In the case of a federally declared disaster, qualified taxpayers get a mandatory 60-day extension period for filing and paying taxes.

Business Provisions

Please look to a separate post concerning business provisions from the Act to be posted on January 1, 2020.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Six Social Security Mistakes to Avoid

One of the most common worries I hear from clients is that social security won't be there for them when they retire. Hence, many of them insist on claiming social security at the earliest possible age so they can get back as much money that they paid in as they can. Hint: social security is not going anywhere; a few tweaks in benefit payment and taxation of wages here and there, and it can be viable for decades to come.

"What if I die before I claim social security?" Most of the time, my answer is that the only ones who will care about that are their heirs, since it meant that my clients spent a little more of their nestegg patiently waiting for their benefits to grow. And in that case, there is usually plenty in the nestegg to keep them happy.

Social security rules are so convoluted and confusing that even I have a tough time remembering and reciting them. But hopefully with this article, I can help you avoid some of the most common mistakes people make when claiming social security.

On January 31, 1940, the first monthly Social Security check was issued to Ida May Fuller of Ludlow, Vermont. She received $22.54, according to the Social Security Administration. She was 65 years old at the time. She passed away at 100 years of age.

Ida May Fuller worked for three years under the Social Security program, paid a total of $24.75 in payroll taxes, and collected $22,888.92 in Social Security benefits.

Today, nearly 70 million people receive some form of assistance from Social Security. You and I will never receive the return on our contributions that Ms. Fuller received, but Social Security can and does play a role in supplementing savings accumulated over a lifetime.

Recognizing that Social Security supplements other sources of income, we can take proactive measures that maximize benefits while avoiding the pitfalls that poor choices can create.

With that in mind, let’s review potential financial Social Security potholes that can cost you money.

1. Collecting benefits too soon. You may begin receiving your retirement benefit at age 62…at a reduced rate. You probably know this, but let’s talk turkey.

If you were born in 1960 or later, full retirement age is 67. At age 62, your monthly benefit amount is reduced by about 30% of what you would receive if you waited until you are 67. The reduction for starting benefits at 63 is about 25%; 64 is about 20%; 65 is about 13.3%; and 66 is about 6.7%.

In casual conversation, it’s common for clients to ask us, “When is the right time for me to begin receiving benefits?” We usually respond with a less-than-definitive, “It depends,” because many variables, both objective and subjective, factor in.

If you have questions, let’s talk. We believe it’s important to tailor our thoughts and recommendations to your specific circumstances. Optimizing your spouse's and your social security claim dates can literally add tens, if not hundreds of thousands to your retirement income stream.

2. You collect prior to your full retirement age while still working. If you are under full retirement age for the entire year, Social Security deducts $1 from your benefit payments for every $2 you earn above the annual limit. For 2019, that limit is $17,640. Ouch!

In the year you reach full retirement, Social Security deducts $1 in benefits for every $3 you earn above a higher limit. The 2019 income limit is $46,920. Only earnings before the month you reach your full retirement age are counted.

In many cases, the price of collecting Social Security while working and under full retirement age can be costly.

3. You are unaware that your Social Security may be taxed. IRA and 401(k) contributions may be deducted from income to reduce your overall tax bill. However, Social Security taxes paid by the employee are not deductible. But that doesn’t necessarily translate into tax-free Social Security income.

If you file a federal tax return as an “individual”  and your combined income (excluding Social Security) runs between $25,000 and $34,000, you may have to pay income tax on up to 50% of your benefits. Earn more than $34,000, and up to 85% of your benefits may be taxable.

If you file a joint return, the threshold rises to $32,000 and $44,000, respectively. Proper tax planning with your other income can help minimize the income taxes that apply to your social security benefits.

4. You decide to defer the spousal benefit. The longer you wait to take Social Security, the greater the monthly benefit, up to age 70. So, why not employ the same strategy for your spouse, if money isn’t the primary issue? Unfortunately, that may not be a wise choice.

The most your spouse may receive is 50% of the monthly benefit of the primary account that you are entitled to at full retirement age.  If your spouse waits past his or her full retirement age, he or she is leaving money with the government. Again, optimization of social security benefits can help figure out what claiming strategy makes the most sense.

5. Remarriage and your benefit. It’s complicated. You may already be aware that  divorced spouses are eligible for benefits tied to their former marriage.

 Eligibility is determined by these criteria: 

• You were married for at least 10 straight years.
• You are at least 62 years old.
• Your ex-spouse is eligible for retirement benefits.
• You are currently unmarried.

However, if you remarry, you lose the rights to your former spouse’s benefits unless your new marriage ends, whether by death or divorce.

I understand that the monthly Social Security check you receive may pale in comparison with the new journey you are about to begin, but it’s important that you are aware of the financial component.

6. How many years have you worked? Most of us understand one simple concept: the longer we wait to take Social Security (up to age 70) the higher the benefit (spousal benefit may be an exception–see #4). 

We also understand that higher wage earners can expect to receive a higher benefit. But did you realize that your monthly benefit is also based on your highest 35 years of earnings?

What if you haven’t worked 35 years? Social Security averages in zero for those years, which reduces your benefit. If you have at least 35 years, but some of those years are low earning years, they will be averaged in, creating lower benefit versus continued employment at higher wages.

Are you still working in your 50s or 60s? Great! Those after-school jobs in high school or years when your income may have been low, are removed from the benefit calculation if you’ve exceeded 35 years of income.

When we are factoring in pensions and retirement savings, those extra dollars may or may not amount to much, but I believe it is something to be aware of.

For some folks, Social Security may seem simple. For others, it feels as if you’re entering a complicated financial maze. If you have questions about Social Security or are uncertain how to proceed, feel free to give us a call. And of course, be sure to run any tax scenarios by your tax or financial advisor.

If you would like to review your social security options, get an opinion on your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Believe it Or Not

A longtime favorite line that I like to use when people ask me what the market or economy are going to do in the near future, is to say "Sorry, my crystal ball is in the shop."  Or I'll repeat what famed baseball manager Yogi Berra once said: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

That doesn't stop others from trying to be a broken clock by predicting early and often. And so we’re into that exciting time of year when all sorts of market predictions are made by people who are mostly claiming that they knew the future and have accurately predicted it over a great track record.  But if you’re smart, you’ll turn off the TV/radio or move on to the next article.

The truth is that none of us can accurately predict the movements of the markets.  If we could, then we would always make trades ahead of market moves, and it wouldn’t take long before that amazing prognosticator with the working crystal ball would have amassed billions off of his or her stock market trades.  Have you read about anybody doing that lately?

Most of these people are employed at think tanks or sell their predictions to credulous investors.  Would they need that paycheck or your hard-earned subscription dollars if they had the ability to make billions just by checking the ‘ole crystal ball a couple of times a day?

A recent article by frequent blogger and wealth manager Barry Ritholtz offers some rather amazing data on people in the prediction business.  You may know that the cryptocurrency known as “bitcoin” is now worth about $3,500—way WAY down from the start of 2018.  So how well did the people in the prediction business foresee that downturn?

Not well.  In his article, Ritholtz noted that Pantera Capital predicted that Bitcoin would be selling for $20,000 by the end of 2018.  Tom Lee of Fundstrat was more bullish, forecasting that bitcoin would breach $25,000 by then.  Prognostications by Anthony Pompliano, of Morgan Creek Digital Partners, were still more bullish, predicting bitcoins would be worth $50,000 by the end of last year.  John Pfeffer, who describes himself online as “an entrepreneur and investor,” anticipated $75,000 bitcoins by now, and Kay Van-Petersen, Global Macro-Strategist at Saxo Bank, one-upped everybody with his prediction that bitcoins would be worth $100,000 by December 31st of last year.

Ritholtz offers other examples, like radio personality Peter Schiff telling listeners since 2010 that the price of gold has been heading toward $5,000 an ounce.  (It’s riding around $1,300 currently.). Jim Rickards, former general counsel at Long-Term Capital Management, is more ambitious, telling his followers that he has a $10,000 price target for an ounce of gold.

If you happen to follow former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockman, you have been told that stocks are going to crash in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.  Someday he’s going to be right, and will no doubt be touting his amazing prediction abilities (that broken clock is right twice a day).

When you read about a prediction, instead of reaching for the phone to call your financial advisor, try writing the prediction down on a calendar or reminder program like the app followupthen.com, and come back to it a year later.  Chances are you’ll be less impressed then than you might be now.

The three things that work best for investors: time in the market, portfolio diversification, and risk management. Soothsayers need not apply.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post

Source:

https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/fun-with-forecasting-2018-edition/

Second Quarter 2018 YDFS Market Review

I often remind my clients and prospects that judging market performance for periods shorter than a few years, isn’t very helpful. Market returns are simply random over relatively brief periods. However, over longer periods, such as five years, stocks are almost always profitable and offer very good performance. The S&P 500 has finished higher in 91% of the rolling-five-year periods over the last 50 years.

Nonetheless, it's helpful to check back and see how well the markets performed over the past quarter  While the U.S. equity markets suffered a small setback in the first quarter of 2018, the second quarter brought us back into positive territory.

The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index—the broadest measure of U.S. stocks—finished the quarter up 3.83%, and is now in positive territory for the first half of the year, at +3.04%. The comparable Russell 3000 index is up 3.22% so far this year.

Large cap stocks more than recovered their earlier losses. The Wilshire U.S. Large Cap index gained 3.41% over the past three months, to finish up 2.62% for the first half of the year, while the Russell 1000 large-cap index stands at a 2.85% gain at the year’s halfway point. The widely-quoted S&P 500 index of large company stocks gained 2.93% in value during the year’s second quarter, rallying to a 1.67% gain so far in 2018.

Meanwhile, the Russell Midcap Index is up 2.35% in the first six months of the year.

As measured by the Wilshire U.S. Small-Cap index, investors in smaller companies posted a 7.87% gain over the second three months of the year, and now stand up 7.08% at the half-year mark. The comparable Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is up 7.66% for the year. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index finished the quarter with a gain of 6.31%, and is now up 8.79% at the halfway point of 2018. Much of the over-performance of the NASDAQ can be attributed to a handful of stocks such as Amazon, Facebook, Google and Neflix.

International stocks are not faring quite so well. The broad-based MSCI EAFE index of companies in developed foreign economies lost 2.34% in the recent quarter, and is now down 4.49% for the year. In aggregate, European stocks were down 2.74% over the last three months, posting an overall loss of 5.23% for the year, while MSCI’s EAFE’s Far East Index lost 3.24% in the second quarter, down 3.33% so far in 2018. Emerging market stocks of less developed countries, as represented by the MSCI EAFE EM index, went into negative territory for the quarter, down 8.66%, for a loss of 7.68% for the year.

Looking over the other investment categories, real estate, as measured by the Wilshire U.S. REIT index, gained 9.73% during the year’s second quarter, and is just eking out a 1.52% gain for the year. The S&P GSCI index, which measures commodities returns, gained 8.00% in the second quarter, up 10.36% for the year, mainly due to the rising price of oil.

In the bond markets, coupon rates on 10-year Treasury bonds have continued an incremental rise to 2.86%, while 30-year government bond yields have risen slightly to 2.99%. Five-year municipal bonds are yielding, on average, 2.00% a year, while 30-year munis are yielding 3.00% on average. Simply put, at present, investing in bonds with a term greater than 10 years is not rewarding you for the many years of interest rate risk you're taking. That may change.

So what’s going on? There appear to be several forces fighting for control over the investment markets. The current bull market started in March of 2009, and seemed to be running out of steam in the first quarter, before a sugar high—the stimulus provided by the recent tax bill—kicked in for companies that have traditionally experienced higher tax rates. This pushed a tired bull market forward for another quarter, and could do the same for the remainder of the year. A fiscal stimulus in the ninth year of an economic expansion is almost unheard of, but it is clearly having a positive effect: economic activity was up nearly 5% in the second quarter, unemployment has continued a downward trend that really started at the beginning of the bull market, and corporate earnings—with the lower corporate taxes factored in—are projected to increase roughly 25% over last year.

The other contestants for control of the economy seem destined to lose this year and possibly start winning in 2019. The Federal Reserve Board has raised short-term interest rates once again, and has announced plans to continue in September, December, next March and next June. Bonds' share of investors' dollars at some point will overtake stocks as government 10 year bond yields reach 4% or more, making it difficult for stocks to levitate at current levels.

Meanwhile, the labor markets are so tight that there are more jobs available than workers to fill them. Won’t this eventually force companies to share their profits in the form of higher salaries? And there are potential problems with the escalating trade war that America has picked with its trading partners that will almost certainly not have a positive impact in the long term.

Bigger picture, the flattening yield curve—where longer-term bonds are closer to yielding what shorter-term instruments are paying—is never regarded as a good sign for an economy’s near-term future. It’s worth noting that the financial sector—that is, lending institutions—was one of the economic sectors to experience a loss. Banks borrow short and lend long, and there isn’t much profit in that activity when the rates are about equal.

Beyond that, in a good year, corporate earnings would grow around 5%, so one could argue that the economy is now experiencing five years of earnings growth. Add these factors to the doddering age of the current bull market, and you have to wonder how long the party can continue. Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring, but everybody knows that bull (up-trending) markets don’t last forever. This may be a good time to mentally and financially prepare for an end to the long bull run, and to hope it ends gracefully. For our clients, we remain cautious bulls and are keeping our hedges in place. The higher volatility we've experienced so far this year shows no sign of waning, and the low-volume summer trading season is the ideal time for market shenanigans to show up.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sources:

Wilshire index data: http://www.wilshire.com/Indexes/calculator/

Russell index data: http://www.ftse.com/products/indices/russell-us

S&P index data: http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/us/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf--p-us-l--

Nasdaq index data: http://quotes.morningstar.com/indexquote/quote.html?t=COMP

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/indices/nasdaq-total-returns.aspx

International indices: https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

Commodities index data: http://us.spindices.com/index-family/commodities/sp-gsci

Treasury market rates: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/

Bond rates: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/corporate-bonds/

General: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-see-broad-gains-in-the-second-quarter-but-not-without-turbulence-2018-06-29
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/08/gdp-for-second-quarter-on-track-to-double-2018-full-year-pace-of-2017.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-report-4th-july-need-know-week-ahead-191630507.html

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post